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Series History Since 1950
Overall Series Record: Illinois leads 24-18-3
Longest Wisconsin winning streak: 3 (1952-54 and 1996-1998)
Longest Illinois winning streak: 6 (1987-1992)
Best Wisconsin "run": Wisconsin was 5-0-1 against Illinois from 1992-1998.
Best Illinois "run": Illinois was 11-1 against Wisconsin from 1981-1992. What was interesting about this run
is that from '81 to '87, the teams were usually very evenly matched. Illinois just had the Badgers' number.
Wisconsin record when favored: 12-2-1
Illinois record when favored: 17-3-1
Tossup games: Illinois leads 5-3-1
Biggest Wisconsin upset: In 1975, #86 ranked Wisconsin beats #61 ranked Illinois, 18-9.
Biggest Illinois upset: In 2002, #61 ranked Illinois upsets #31 Wisconsin, 37-20.
Most important game: In 1951, unbeaten and #3 ranked Illinois squeaks by #7 Wisconsin 14-10. It was the only loss
between the two teams that season.
Least meaningful game: In 1969, 97th ranked 3-7 Wisconsin defeats winless #120 Illinois 55-14.
Biggest Wisconsin blowout: 55-7 in 1961.
Biggest Illinois blowout: 51-0 in 1965.
September 27, 2003
Illinois Season Preview
Analysis of Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game:
Obviously this was the key to the game as I expected. However, I don't know that any Badger fans
expected the overall dominance displayed by the offensive line. Lost in the shuffle was the pretty
good job done by the Badger defense. Illinois broke off a couple of draws, but was stuffed pretty well
most of the day on the ground.
Cowans gave up a few plays, but overall held up well. This will continue to be a concern with the losses
of Stellmacher and Bell this week.
Wisconsin stormed out of the gate by putting 3 scores on the board. While the crowd seemed poised to become a
factor, the Badger offense would put a 6 minute drive together.
Illinois' blitz package was totally negated by the Badger dominance on the ground.
This the type of game I have been waiting for this season. We saw some glipses of this in the second half
against North Carolina, but yesterday they really solidified a team identity.
The game actually went pretty similiar to what I expected in terms of momentum and overall tone. The only
problem was I had the teams completely reversed. I think my keys were pretty good this week in hindsight, but
I have to take a big "WRONG" on my prediction.
Here are Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game:
For teams with Jon Beutjer on one side and receivers like Lee Evans on the other, I believe the overwhelming key to this game is running the football. Illinois has been solid against the run this year, averaging only 113 yards allowed. Wisconsin is likely to be without Anthony Davis and will be playing with a banged up Jim Sorgi. The Badgers also need to make Illinois one dimensional to limit Beutjer's effectiveness. I believe Dwayne Smith and Booker Stanley need to combine for 200 yards and I believe the Badger defense needs to hold Illinois to a sub-120 yard day for the Badgers to win.
Chuckie Cowans had a rough game vs. Illinois last season. With Brett Bell out, either Cowans or true freshman Roderick Rogers becomes the third corner. Illinois' pro style offense is pretty skilled at exploiting
matchups, so Wisconsin's nickel back/third corner needs to hold up.
Illinois' fans are ready to turn after a 1-3 start. With a 5:00 kickoff and a near full house, they could become a factor if the Illini play well early. But, if the Badgers can either jump out early or at least get the game settled down in the first half, I believe they will have a great chance to win the game.
Illinois is a team that relies heavily on the blitz, while Wisconsin had trouble against UNLV. How the Badgers
handle these blitz packages will be huge.
After playing a less than stellar non-conference schedule, the Badgers will learn a lot about themselves as Big Ten play begins. Over the first four games, we have seen startling swings between effective play, spectacular play, and horrendous play from all areas of the team. If the Badgers are going to be an upper echelon team, they need to establish who they are and begin to play with some consistency.
There are a lot of things I don't like about this matchup. I think Wisconsin is the better team, but Illinois' offense has dismantled their defense the last few years. The DL has not had a consistent pass rush, so Beutjer should have time to throw. Wisconsin is missing Davis, Bell, and James, while Sorgi may be limited in his ability to throw the ball. I suspect we will see a game similar to the last two, with Illinois putting some big numbers on the board and Wisconsin playing catchup. The Badgers lose a close one late in the game, 38-30.
The Line Says...
Sagarin has the Badgers as a 3 point favorite. Howell has Wisconsin as a 5.5 point favorite with a 60%
chance of winning and a projected score of 26-21.
NCAA Stat Rankings
Here is how the two teams rank in terms of NCAA stats:
Rushing Offense: WIS 21, ILL 77
October 20, 2001
Illinois Season Preview
Here are the Game Grades:
QB: B-
Bollinger started out sharp with some nice early throws against some pressure and a well-blocked QB draw
for a TD.
After Brooks went down, Sorgi was woeful early, throwing passes behind, over, and around his receivers while wilting against the pass rush. However,
once he got his rhythm, he threw some excellent balls to help the Badgers get back in the game. He had good touch on his deep balls and threw a couple
out patterns with solid velocity and accuracy.
RB: A-
Anthony Davis was limited between the tackles, but showed tremendous burst around the corner on numerous occasions. He also was able to bounce a couple
of interior runs to the outside which led to some big plays. Late in the game, he ran with good power, especially on his final TD run.
The backs also did a pretty solid job of picking up an aggressive Illinois blitz package.
WR/TE: A
Evans had an early drop, but overall the receivers were outstanding. Lee Evans in particular could not be covered by the Illini. He was fluid in his cuts
and once again made big plays at key moments. He caught the deep ball, the cross, the outs, and battled hard for the jump ball, drawing a pass interference call.
Nick Davis also had a solid game, making a couple of nice snatches despite some pretty heavy contact.
The other receivers, including tight end Mark Anelli were noticably absent.
OL: B
The offensive line was unable to pound the Illini front, but did a pretty solid job of maintaining their blocks at times which allowed Anthony Davis to get the corner. Ben Johnson in particular was the lead blocker on most of Davis' longer runs. Again, not consistent holes, but enough to lead to some success on the ground.
The QB draw for the TD was wonderfully blocked.
The pass blocking was also solid if unspectacular. Sorgi was sacked twice but both were coverage type sacks. Illinois blitzed a lot yet the OL held up fine.
DL: D
Very very few plays were made by the front 4. Bryant got some penetration against the run a couple times, but picking out any plays of significance otherwise is a hopeless exercise.
In particular, the pass rush was completely non-existent. Even when the Badgers blitzed their back 7 (which they did with fair regularity), the front 4 could not even force Kittner to hurry a pass, let alone notche a sack.
The loss of McGrew really hurt.
LB: C-
For most of the game, the linebackers held their own. However, once again they were victimized by key breakdowns...
Holding on Jeff Mack, Schick beat in coverage, and a blown coverage by Bryson Thompson were all key plays that resulted from poor linebacker play against the pass.
Considering the state of the defensive line for most of the game, the linebackers did an ok job filling the running lanes. Illinois had a respectable rushing attack, but did not bust anything due to pretty solid run support.
DB: D
It was a mixture of problems for the Badger DB's. At times, especially early in the game, they were much too soft, allowing some easy 3rd down conversions. Scott Starks in particular allowed too big of a cushion early on.
As the game went on, the coverage tightened for the most part. Starks and Echols were left in solitary man coverage quite a bit and held up fairly well as far as blanketing their man. Yes, the Illinois receivers were still able to make plays.
Some of this was due to the poor pass rush, some of it was due to some tremendous catches from Brandon Lloyd in particular, but some of it also was a failure to play the ball.
Against the run, there weren't too many blown tackles, but the DBs were usually giving ground upon contact.
Special Teams: C-
The kickoffs were either short or had mediocre coverage for the most part. Failure to contain the reverse was a key play in the game.
The punt coverage was solid, but Munden's punts were so short that field position was a problem anyway. Morse had two solid kicks late in the game.
Davis had one solid return, but was very limited by good Illinois kickoffs.
Analysis of Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game:
1.) Red zone play
Not really an issue as both teams punched it in when they had the chance.
2.) Turnover margin
Wisconsin did what they needed to do with regards to turnovers, finishing a plus two (despite being hosed on a key blown call in the 4th quarter). With all of the other problems, this
key kept Wisconsin in the game.
3.) Making the Illini a one trick pony
This was the big one in my opinion. While Illinois did not gash Wisconsin like Indiana did, they were able to consistently rush for 4-5 yards on first down which
allowed Illinois to keep their options open and keep them in low pressure situations.
4.) Brandon Lloyd vs. Mike Echols & Eugene Wilson vs. Lee Evans
Echols did not match up with Lloyd and Illinois kept Llody away from Mike. Starks did a nice job on Lloyd for most of the game, but Lloyd made numerous huge plays down the stretch against good coverage
to prove his worth.
On the other side of the ball, Wilson drew most of the responsibility of Evans but had no chance against Lee.
Overall, both teams did a nice job of getting the ball to their playmakers so this area is a push.
Between Evans, Lloyd, Ron Johnson, and Marquis Walker, there are going to be two damn good receivers not making All-Big Ten first team.
5.) I'm schizophrenic....no I'm not
Surprisingly, I thought the Badgers played relativey consistently on Saturday. They had problems in a number of areas, but I don't think it was due to any mental preparation issues or wildly inconsistent play.
PREDICTION
The outcome really didn't surprise me. It was more high scoring than I thought it would be, but that is about it.
Here are Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game:
1.) Red zone play
Illinois leads the conference in both red zone offense and red zone defense. Wisconsin has also been pretty solid in this regard. However,
in a game that could be tightly contested, making the most of your opportunities is vital.
2.) Turnover margin
Turnovers are always keys of course, but it has been a major strength of Illinois' this season as they rank among the best in the country thanks
to their attacking defense and sure ballhandlers in the offensive backfield. Wisconsin meanwhile has been subpar in this regard, in contrast with
typical Alvarez teams. Wisconsin must break even, if not win, the turnover battle in the face of a defense desinged to force mistakes.
3.) Making the Illini a one trick pony
Wisconsin has had success in taking away one aspect of an opponent's offense and gambling that they would not be able to beat them in the other. Illinois
however is a much more balanced team, similiar to an Oregon for instance. Can Wisconsin stop the run without bringing their linebackers and safeties up? Can
they avoid the big play if they do bring the aforementioned players into run support?
4.) Brandon Lloyd vs. Mike Echols & Eugene Wilson vs. Lee Evans
Both teams have a standout receiver and a standout corner. Does each team tweak their normal defensive set to get their top cover man on the opposing team's top receiver?
How will the offensive coordinators attempt to get their star players touches? How will the supporting players on each team contribute to possibly give one team an edge here?
5.) I'm schizophrenic....no I'm not
It is anybody's guess as to which Badger team shows up. This game could be anywhere from a commanding Wisconsin win to a big Illinois blowout as far as I am concerned.
PREDICTION
As I just alluded to, I really haven't the vaguest idea of what will happen in this game. I can rationalize a whole bunch of scenarios based on what I have seen from the Badgers this year, but
on the other hand rationalizing the converse is just as easy. I guess what I am saying is that unlike most games, I don't have a strong feeling either way as to what I believe will happen so this week's
prediction is even more of a guess than it typically is. I'll say 27-24 Illinois. You may now commence your attack.
Here is how the Badgers and Illini compare:
Total offense: WIS 57, ILL 48
Wisconsin has played the 25th toughest schedule in the nation. Illinois has played the 33rd toughest schedule in the country.
For Wisconsin...
Anthony Davis is 9th in the nation in yards rushing per game and 28th in all-purpose running.
For Illinois...
Antoineo Harris is 80th in rushing yards per game.
Sagarin has Illinois as an 11 point favorite. Howell has the Illini as a 7 point favorite with an 62% chance of winning.
Projected score is 28-21.
October 17, 1998
Here are my positional grades for the Illinois game.
QB: C
On his 12 short throws, he was right on the money with 7 of them, including a couple of nice throws on the run (which he normally does not do especially well, insisting on tucking it under and running), especially a third down toss to Grams after eluding pressure.
3 of his short throws were adequate and 2 were poor (bouncing one in front of Grams being the worst).
Mike made a nice decision throwing a ball away early on at attempted screen as the defense had the play sniffed out.
On his medium and deep balls, only 2 of 8 were considered good throws, with 2 of those being very poor.
With a nice margin to work with, I wish they would have expanded the passing game a bit. I don't have a problem with all the short dumps and so forth when the game is tight, but when you are up 20 something to 0, I say open it up a bit.
After tweaking an ankle early in the game, the Badgers kept Samuel's running under wraps for the most part. He did make a few nice cuts when they did run the option, although on one play he ran it when Dayne could have had a big gainer as he was matched up one on one with an Illini corner with a whole bunch of green ahead of him.
RB: A-
One aspect missing once again from the Badger rushing attack has been the home run threat. There weren't any obvious big holes that Dayne and company missed, but this lack of long long runs still has me a bit worried.
Cecil Marin had an excellent day as a lead blocker, supplying at least 5 big blocks on long runs. He did a nice job of finding the LB support and taking the first wave out. He also did a nice job 5-7 yards down the field on some of the wide runs.
Faulkner was very workmanlike, though his TD was a thing of beauty.
WR: C+
I still feel we need more out of our receivers though.
TE: B
His blocking was unspectacular though solid. He made a nice seal block on one of the TDs but generally was not heard of much, which considering all the blown assignments by Retzlaff last week, was good enough for me.
OL: B
Pass protection was excellent, though Illinois does not have an athlete like Rosie Colvin to make them work. Also consider that there were only 3 deep balls all day.
The run blocking was pretty good, though Dayne really made them look good a few times. All in all however, there was good push up front.
Aaron Gibson once again was the dominant blocker, supplying 8 or 9 outstanding drive blocks on big gainers. He was not responsible for any blown plays that I was aware of. The Badgers continue to get most of their big plays running the ball right.
Bill Ferrario was next in line. As he ususally does, he had a few blown blocks when required to more laterlly, but he also supplied 5 or 6 excellent blocks, either turning his man opening a hole up the middle, or occasionally on the pulls. Ferrario clearly plays better in my opinion against a team without overly athletic linemen (DUH!!).
Roell and McIntosh were adequate. Roell had his ups and downs but generally played pretty well, supplying 3 super blocks. He was called for one of the holds though (I think...hard to see).
McIntosh was steady although they didn't run his way too much. He did show up on the right side of the field a few times though displaying nice cross field hustle/speed.
Costa was the OL that struggled in my mind. He missed 3 or 4 blocks that led to big Illinois plays. His man made quite a few plays, both inside and outside. He also was called for one of the holds.
The Badgers also played a bit of their JUMBO formation, with Tauscher getting in a few plays as a tight end.
Jason Eck (#55...I think it was him) was pretty bad late in the game. I hope he enjoys the commaradarie of the team as he clearly isn't all that talented a football player.
DL: A-
They also got their hands up and batted 2 or 3 balls away when not getting outright pressure.
Individually, not much to say as they generally played good fundamental positional football.
Tom Burke was his normal self, supplying good pressure and pursuit despite fairly consistent double teams.
Eric Mahlik did a good job of getting some penetration and forcing some plays.
Wendell Bryant showed that he will continue to be a pass rushing threat from the inside, espcially when stunting.
Favret was pretty quiet overall.
LB: B
Chris Ghidorzi continues to be the top player in my view among the LBs, continuously plugging the gaps and getting into the offensive backfield. He did a super job of sniffing out the Illini draw play, negating it for the rest of the afternoon.
Bob Adamov was quiet overall, though providing solid support in coverage. While not overly quick, he does a nice job of getting to where he needs to be. He also supplied a nice strip on the second Illinois fumble.
Donnell Thompson once again was not heard of much, simply cleaning up the DL havoc. His tackles must be way down this year as a tribute to the overall defensive play.
On the streak pass to the TE, I thought Thompson could have gotten a bit deeper in his drop, as it appeared that he lost the TE for a second.
DB: A
Fletcher was the star of the game in the secondary, not only for his fumble recovery and his INT TD, but also for dominating coverage and a couple of nice deflections.
On the play where Burke batted the ball early in the third quarter, Fletcher would have had a pick and 6 as he was breaking on the ball and the WR fell down.
Fletcher and the DBs also provided solid run support on the outside, showing no fear regarding laying a lick on the ballcarrier/receivers.
Bobby Myers provided a lift as well with a nice athletic interception (not to mention the play on the fake punt).
Special Teams: C
Davenport missed his first FG of the season after someone in the line committed a personal foul on the first attempt. He also missed an XP.
Stemke had nice high punts once again, though Majoy broke a couple short runs against coverage and the coverage team failed to down one of the punts inside the 5 like they should have.
The returns were very subpar, particularly the blocking. I thought Davis also possibly could have caught the long punt before it rolled even further (though I am not sure on this).
They did recover the onside kick and blow up the fake punt.
Let's check out my keys to the game.
1. Mistakes
2. Offensive diversity
However, overall it wasn't really a factor. The Badgers were content to just ram the ball straight at Illinois with decent results.
By the way, finally a reverse....yaaayyyyy!!!
3. Big Play Containment
Harvey was unimpressive.
4. Get out early
Illinois never threatened to make it a game despite the relatively close first half score.
PREDICTION: I was a little conservative mainly because I wrongly assumed that Illinois would take better care of the ball.
However, the game progressed pretty much as I thought...slow but steady start with gradual control as the game went along.
Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game
1. Mistakes
Special teams execution, sure tackling, and lack of turnovers are the keys to the battle of mistakes.
2. Offensive diversity
I think Samuel will need to deliver some big plays in the passing game. I would like to see 15-20 well conceived pass plays. They do not all need to be down the field, but rather a few dumpoffs, a few quick outs, etc. just to keep the defense honest.
In all honesty though, the OL does need to generate some solid running yards.
3. Big Play Containment
As a smallish quick back, he has the potential to take it to the house if he were to get free. Wisconsin has not faced a back of his style on a team that likes to run the ball as of yet.
I think Wisconsin will do a good job in this reard though as they have surrendered very few big plays this year.
4. Get out early
They have played tight games on the road against Northwestern, Minnesota, San Diego St., and Indiana, failing to deliver a quick knock out blow. Sooner or later they need to do this or they are going to get bit if they rely on a late rally.
Getting out early would also allow them to get Dayne some rest and avoid other injuries (as they already will be missing Retzlaff, Rabach, and Knight for sure).
PREDICTION: Much like the non-conference games, I have not spent too much time in analyzing individual matchups for this game as I see Wisconsin edges in virtually every area.
Simply put, if the Badgers execute, they will win.
However, with Rabach out, McIntosh hurting, and Costa and Ferrario playing inconsistent football, it would not surprise me to see Illinois hang in the game for the first half. I see a 10-3 Wisconsin lead at halftime with the Badgers taking slow control as the game progresses.
Final score: Wisconsin 24, Illinois 3.
Return to Game Previews/Reviews Page
Illinois Depth Chart
Illinois Stats
Analysis of Badgermaniac's Prediction
Badgermaniac's Prediction
Passing Offense: WIS 51, ILL 22
Passing Efficiency: WIS 52, ILL 55
Total Offense: WIS 29, ILL 48
Scoring Offense: WIS 46, ILL 79
Rushing Defense: WIS 56, ILL 37
Passing Defense: WIS 51, ILL 61
Passing Efficiency Defense: WIS 43, ILL 54
Total Defense: WIS 47, ILL 42
Scoring Defense: WIS 70, ILL 50
Turnover Margin: WIS 90, ILL 90
Net Punting: WIS 79, ILL 61
Punt Returns: WIS 35, ILL 96
Kickoff Returns: WIS 116, ILL 78
Illinois Stats
Passing offense: WIS 67, ILL 37
Passing efficiency: WIS 56, ILL 41
Rushing offense: WIS 32, ILL 60
Scoring offense: WIS 61, ILL 37
Total defense: WIS 35, ILL 71
Rushing defense: WIS 66, ILL 53
Passing defense: WIS 13, ILL 81
Passing efficiency defense: WIS 39, ILL 30
Scoring defense: WIS 62, ILL 26
Turnover margin: WIS 76, ILL 13
Lee Evans is 40th in receptions per game, 59th in all-purpose running, and 7th in receiving yards per game.
Kirk Munden is 55th in punting.
Nick Davis is 74th in punt returns and 48th in kickoff returns.
Mike Allen is 45th in field goals per game.
Kurt Kittner is 40th in passing efficiency and 34th in total offense.
Brandon Lloyd is 46th in receptions per game.
Carey Davis is 97th in receptions per game.
Muhammad Abdullah is 22nd in interceptions per game.
Christian Morton is 79th in interceptions per game.
Eugene Wilson is 79th in interceptions per game and 25th in punt returns.
Steve Fitts is 26th in punting average.
Peter Christofilakos is 45th in field goals per game.
Samuel made some key throws early but generally his play was unimpressive.
Dayne showed great explosiveness and power, steamrolling numerous defenders and showing his usual sense for hitting the holes. On a number of plays, Dayne made something out of nothing as he bounced off early contact and broke the play for a nice 6-8 yard gain.
No drops and better separation. On most of the deep throws, either Chambers or Merritt was open. Samuel just couldn't get them the ball.
Grams had a pretty good game overall. He made all the catches he should have, including a nice one handed grab on the deflected ball in the flat.
No pressure and 274 yards rushing ususally equals an "A", but I still think there is room for improvement with this group.
Solid job of run control. The pass rush was not outstanding, though sufficient, espcecially considering the lack of blitzes and the constant 3 step drops by the Illini. They were only successfully run blocked 1 time all afternoon by my count.
The DL continues to make the linebackers appear anonymous, requiring them only to fill holes and make solid unspectacular plays.
Outstanding coverage. I did not see poor coverage by a DB the entire game. Their coverage was excellent on well over 60% of the Illinois passing plays.
Some good, some not so good.
No problem. The Badgers forced the mistakes from a bad Illinois team.
Considering the strong wind, it was there early, with Samuel providing some key third down throws.
Again, no problem. Illinois just doesn't have enough talent to generate big plays against a good defense.
Well, they didn't blow them out, but they got the lead early which allowed them to sit back, play it slow and steady and wait for the inevitable Illinois mistakes.
Much like the non-conference games, Illinois should only be able to hang in the game if Wisconsin gives them some easy points. The Wisconsin defense is just too talented for a young and struggling offense to expect the Illini to be able to generate points on their own.
Illinois has a pretty good run defense and coupled with Wisconsin's trouble of late consistently run blocking, it could be interesting if Wisconsin just tries to smash it down Illinois' throat.
I suppose this comes under #1, but it is key that Harvey does not deliver any big plays to keep the game interesting.
Again, this is pretty typical for the Badgers in general. However, they have not jumped on a bad team on the road early in a game since the third game of last season against San Jose St.
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