West Virginia Mountaineers

Review of Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game

1. West Virginia defensive scheme

   Overall, a much more solid performance from the WVU defense. They were still very aggressive in their run blitzes, which gave the Badgers some troubles until the 4th quarter. However, they didn't seem to sacrifice too much in the pass defense.

2. Marshall Playmaking

   The Badgers did an outstanding job of limiting Marshall/Hales playmaking. WVU kept their passing game short to limit the Badger rush, which also limited the number of scrambles. Wisconsin also defended the QB-action type plays very well. Marshall/Hales were non-factors with their feet.

3. West Virginia offensive plays

   Wisconsin had their share of 3 and outs and won the time of possession by 8 minutes. WVU was only 4 of 14 on 3rd down and ran only 66 plays compared to 79 from Wisconsin. Wisconsin dominated the 4th quarter.

4. Badger bulk vs. Mountaineer speed

   The Badgers did not allow a sack as Lorenz and Davis in particular did a fine job of containing pressure. When the pressure did come, it was usually pushed to the outside which allowed Sorgi to step up and throw or run.

Overall, I'd say I was pretty close. It was frustrating seeing Wisconsin not be able to push the ball past the WVU 25 yard line for the first 3 quarters, but it was pretty apparent that if they had enough time, they were going to pull it out.

Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game

1. West Virginia defensive scheme

   Last season, WVU sold their soul to stop the Badger running game, leaving gaping holes in the secondary. What adjustments will the WVU coaching staff make in order to avoid a Jim Sorgi-fest downfield?

2. Marshall Playmaking

   The WVU offensive line is a question mark and Marshall was an eratic passer last season. How will he create when the protection isn't there and can he make accurate throws under pressure? We should also include his ability to make plays with his feet on broken plays?

3. West Virginia offensive plays

   The Badgers must get off the field. With the losses this week of Kleber and possibly James and limited depth to begin with after the top 6 or so defensive linemen, the Badgers cannot take a lot of snaps on defense against a team that has a history of being able to pound the ball. 3rd down conversions are key.

4. Badger bulk vs. Mountaineer speed

   I normally hate this kind of comparison, but when it comes to the Wisconsin OT's vs. the WVU DE's, it might be applicable. WVU is going to have a hard time matching the Badgers in terms of physical strenght on the edge, but can Morgan Davis and Mike Lorenz contain the speedy ends?

I think Wisconsin has some serious questions that need to be answered this season, though I don't know that West Virginia is really the team to take advantage of them. I think the game will be close as West Virginia hits on some big plays, but ultimately, I just think Wisconsin has a pretty big advantage in the line-play. I also don't think WVU matches up well against Wisconsin's passing attack, so if Sorgi is protected, he should have a good game. Wisconsin weathers the storm early and takes home their first victory of the year, 27-21.

The Line Says...

Sagarin has the game as a pick 'em. Howell has the Badgers as a 0.5 point favorite with a 51% chance of winning. Projected score of 26-25.

NCAA Stat Rankings

Here is how the two teams ranked last season in terms of NCAA stats:

Rushing Offense: WIS 35, WVU 2
Passing Offense: WIS 94, WVU 109
Passing Efficiency: WIS , WVU
Total Offense: WIS 84, WVU 20
Scoring Offense: WIS 69, WVU 32
Rushing Defense: WIS 50, WVU 24
Passing Defense: WIS 83, WVU 56
Passing Efficiency Defense: WIS 83, WVU 56
Total Defense: WIS 73, WVU 28
Scoring Defense: WIS 39, WVU 32
Turnover Margin: WIS 6, WVU 2

Analysis of Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game

1. Cobourne's Lanes

   West Virginia did not utilize what we think of as a classic spread formation (4 wideouts/1 back), instead primarily remaining with their base formation including the tight end. Until a meaningless long run late in the game, Cobourne was never given any creases to work with, as Wisconsin also stuck with their base set in order to take away the run and dare Marshall to throw.

2. Wrap It Up Son

   There were still a few missed tackles, but most came in relativey safe areas (ie. the flat) rather than in places that could do significant damage.

3. Where's It Coming From?

   The blitz pickup was very good all afternoon long. The Wisconsin tailbacks in particular did a great job of finding the "stray" defenders. This allowed Bollinger time to pick apart WVU's undermanned secondary, which was THE key to the game.

4. The Known vs. The Unknown

   This is one of those intangibles that we really can't measure, but it was apparent that Wisconsin was the better team.

Badgermaniac's Prediction

I think West Virgina's schemes could cause some trouble for the Badgers in places. However, I think the overall talent level is simply higher for the Badgers and the Mountaineers just aren't quite ready to win on the big stage against a good team. Finally, I think the Badgers are due to play a good overall game, something I don't feel they have done yet. West Virginia hangs tough into the 3rd quarter before the Wisconsin rushing game takes over. Final score: Wisconsin 35, West Virginia 21.

Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game

1. Cobourne's Lanes

   West Virginia tailback Avon Cobourne very well may be one of the better backs the Badgers face this year. However, what makes him especially dangerous is running a short home run hitter from the spread offense. Physically, he is much like former Northwestern tailback Damien Anderson, and the offense has similiar principles regarding spreading you out and letting Cobourne find a lane. Put him in a standard set, and I would respect but not fear him. Put him in the spread, and the respect turns to fear. How will Wisconsin play him? Will they stick with their straight defense, play 7 in the box, and make Marshall beat them through the air? Or, will they nickel and keep only 6 in the box and risk opening some running lanes for Cobourne?

2. Wrap It Up Son

   Wisconsin's tackling has been mediocre thus far this year despite improved speed and aggressive overall play. Against the spread, you simply have to make tackles and keep the offensive players from breaking into the extra space created by the scheme. Against Drew Brees, Wisconsin was successful because they wrapped up immediately after Brees' short outs and slants.

3. Where's It Coming From?

   West Virginia cannot stand toe to toe with Wisconsin's offensive line, nor will they try. Rather, they run an aggressive attacking defense which should be very blitz happy. If Wisconsin is shaky in their blitz pickups, they will probably will be successful in disrupting the Badger offense. If Wisconsin succeeds in picking up the stray blitzers, they could have a big day offensively.

4. The Known vs. The Unknown

   Wisconsin is a young team and is probably not going to "outexperience" anyone. However, one of the things they have going for them is experience within the Badger system. Every player on the roster has come up through the ranks playing essentially the same schemes with the same coaches. In short, the Badger program is established. West Virginia on the other hand is simply in year two of their current regime. While I expect them to improve upon last year, are all the parts in place yet? Are the players totally comfortable with their new stack defense? Etc.

Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 14 point favorite. Howell has the Badgers as a 12.5 point favorite with a 74% chance of winning. Projected score of 28-16.

NCAA Stat Rankings

Here is how the two teams rank in terms of NCAA stats:

Rushing Offense: WIS 44, WVU 7
Passing Offense: WIS 65, WVU 35
Passing Efficiency: WIS 54, WVU 20
Total Offense: WIS 63, WVU 8
Scoring Offense: WIS 62, WVU 6
Rushing Defense: WIS 41, WVU 16
Passing Defense: WIS 70, WVU 16
Passing Efficiency Defense: WIS 44, WVU 27
Total Defense: WIS 46, WVU 5
Scoring Defense: WIS 32, WVU 12
Turnover Margin: WIS 10, WVU 27