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Series History Since 1950
Overall Series Record: Michigan State leads 24-13
Longest Wisconsin winning streak: 3 (1982-84)
Longest Michigan State winning streak: 8 (1985-1992)
Best Wisconsin "run": Wisconsin defeated MSU 5 of 6 times from 1979-1984.
Best Michigan State "run": MSU beat Wisconsin 13 of 15 times between 1955 and 1978. What is interesting about this run is that during that time, Wisconsin scored in double figures only 3 times (13, 21, 31) and MSU shut out Wisconsin 6 times (not including the game in which Wisconsin only scored a safety).
Wisconsin record when favored: 8-2
Michigan State record when favored: 18-2
Tossup games: MSU leads 4-3.
Biggest Wisconsin upset: #78 Wisconsin upsets #35 Michigan State 31-28 in 1971.
Biggest Michigan State upset: #71 MSU throttles #40 Wisconsin 33-14 in 1981.
Most important game: #10 Wisconsin hammers #5 Michigan State 40-10 in 1999 to give Wisconsin the inside track to their second straight Big Ten title.
Least meaningful game: #95 Wisconsin defeats #87 Michigan State 17-7 in 1980.
Biggest Wisconsin blowout: Wisconsin shut out Michigan State 32-0 in 1983.
Biggest Michigan State blowout: MSU beats Wisconsin 55-2 in 1978.
November 15, 2003
Michigan State Season Preview
Analysis of Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game
The Badgers surprised me with how much they threw early, but when the OL does such a nice job, it made sense.
Once it was apparent that Sorgi would have time to throw, what happened as a result was no surprise.
Wisconsin certainly did use the Purdue game as a lesson as to how they are capable of defending a passing
team such as MSU's. They pressed even more than I thought yet did not give up anything deep. This was in
part due to good overall coverage, and in part because MSU's receivers were worse than I thought.
Done.
A complete non-issue since Wisconsin shut down MSU for most of the game, not even allowing the Spartans to reach
field goal position.
I would say it is safe to say that this one came out big in Wisconsin's favor.
Wisconsin was due for a big game, and it did not surprise me that they finally had one. However,
I would be lying if I said I expected what I saw on Saturday: total domination.
Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game
Wisconsin's passing game should shred the Spartan secondary, but there is a pretty big "IF" attached. The Badgers must give Sorgi time. MSU is an exceptionally aggressive team, leading the Big Ten in sacks, while Wisconsin has struggled against teams that have gone after the QB. Wisconsin did improve in this regard last week against Minnesota, and we saw the results. I don't expect Wisconsin to throw a ton in order to keep the blitz off of Sorgi, but if they give him time when they do, expect some big plays.
I don't believe that Wisconsin has the personnel to play an all-out press defense. However, if they sit back like they did in the first half against Purdue, Smoker (the best QB in the Big Ten IMO) will pick them apart. I expect Wisconsin to play tight at times, which means that they are going to be susceptible to the deep throw. MSU will take their shots, and the Badger DB's need to not give up the easy "6".
MSU has some rather ordinary numbers except for a few areas. The most prominent of these is turnover margin where MSU has been outstanding. I don't believe that Wisconsin needs to win the turnover battle. They just can't lose it.
Wisconsin has done a nice job for the most part of keeping teams out of the end zone. MSU has struggled at punching it in at times. This trend will bode well for the Badgers if it continues. If MSU kicks 3 FGs, I think the Badgers win. If they are converting their drives into TD's, look out.
This is one of those games that I expect to see a lot of big plays in for many of the reasons I have already mentioned...big runs, big throws, turnovers, sacks, big kick returns, etc. A fun gauge might be to count which team has the most 20+ yard plays and/or turnovers/sacks/etc.
I really don't know which way to go on this one. The game is virtually a toss-up on paper, with both teams possessing some key edges over the other. Wisconsin traditionally does not do well against blitzing defenses or spread offenses, but on the other hand, they are due for a big game. I think it is going to be a crazy game and I think a win over Iowa is more likely than a win tomorrow in many respects, but I think I am going to go with the Badgers. Once or twice a year I just throw out rationality and just go with my heart, and my heart is telling me that the Badgers are due to get the monkey off of their backs. Wisconsin wins on a late score (for a change), 34-27.
The Line Says...
Sagarin has Michigan State as a 1 point favorite. Howell has the Badgers as a 1 point underdog with a 49% chance of victory and a projected score of 25-24.
NCAA Stat Rankings
Here is how the two teams rank in terms of NCAA stats:
Rushing Offense: WIS 33, MSU 109
Wisconsin has played the 38th toughest schedule in the country, while Michigan State has played the 40th toughest schedule.
Unit matchups:
WISCONSIN'S TOTAL OFFENSE VS MSU'S TOTAL DEFENSE:
Wisconsin's numbers look good despite missing Davis for much of the year. MSU's numbers are unspectacular. Advantage: WISCONSIN.
MSU'S TOTAL OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S TOTAL DEFENSE
Basically the same matchup as on the other side of the ball.
Advantage: MICHIGAN STATE.
MSU'S RUSHING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S RUSHING DEFENSE
MSU makes little to effort to run the ball. Advantage:WISCONSIN.
WISCONSIN'S RUSHING OFFENSE VS MSU'S RUSHING DEFENSE
Wisconsin has run the ball well this year, though they have struggled somewhat as of late. Despite their struggles last week, MSU has been stout against the run this year. Advantage: PUSH.
MSU'S PASSING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S PASSING DEFENSE
Minnesota throws and throws often. Wisconsin has not defended the pass well. Advantage: MICHIGAN STATE.
WISCONSIN'S PASSING OFFENSE VS MSU'S PASSING DEFENSE
If Wisconsin protects Sorgi, he should have a lot of success throwing. Advantage: WISCONSIN
MSU'S SCORING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S SCORING DEFENSE
Michigan State should score just under 30 points if the trend holds. Advantage: MICHIGAN STATE.
WISCONSIN'S SCORING OFFENSE VS. MSU'S SCORING DEFENSE
Wisconsin's yardage totals are impressive, but they haven't put up as many points as you might expect. Advantage: PUSH.
MSU'S PUNTING VS. WISCONSIN PUNT RETURNING
Both units are strong, but a good punting game often negates a good return game. Advantage: SLIGHT TO MICHIGAN STATE.
WISCONSIN PUNTING VS MSU'S PUNT RETURNING
Morse's ball placement has been poor, but he has not yet teams hurt him with returns. Advantage: SLIGHT TO WISCONSIN.
WISCONSIN KICK RETURNS VS. MSU'S KICK COVERAGE
Wisconsin has improved as the year has gone on, and Minnesota is vulnerable here. Advantage: SLIGHT TO WISCONSIN.
MSU'S KICK RETURNS VS. WISCONSIN'S KICK COVERAGE
This will be an important aspect to watch.
Advantage: MICHIGAN STATE.
WISCONSIN'S 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS VS. MSU'S 3RD DOWN
DEFENSE
Wisconsin should be able to maintain some drives. Advantage: SLIGHT TO WISCONSIN.
MSU'S 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS VS. WISCONSIN'S 3RD DOWN DEFENSE
Michigan State has been more of a big play offense. Advantage: WISCONSIN.
TURNOVER MARGIN
This is the primary reason that MSU has been a surprise while Wisconsin has lost some close games. Advantage: MICHIGAN STATE.
WISCONSIN PASS RUSH VS. MSU'SPASS PROTECTION
Both teams are middle of the pack. Advantage: PUSH.
MSU'S PASS RUSH VS. WISCONSIN'S PASS PROTECTION
Michigan State attacks the QB relentlessly. This is one of the big keys to the game as Wisconsin will be able to throw the ball IF they can find a way to protect Sorgi. Advantage: BIG TO MICHIGAN STATE.
FG KICKING
The numbers favor MSU, but Allen narrows that gap. Advantage: SLIGHT TO MICHIGAN STATE.
PENALTIES
Advantage: WISCONSIN.
TIME OF POSSESSION
Advantage: WISCONSIN.
WISCONSIN'S RED ZONE OFFENSE VS. MSU'S RED ZONE DEFENSE.
Both teams have been marginal in the red zone. Advantage: PUSH.
MSU'S RED ZONE OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S RED ZONE OFFENSE.
MSU has often resorted to FG's, while Wisconsin's defense has done a decent job of forcing FG's. Advantage: PUSH.
October 27, 2001
Michigan State Season Preview
Analysis of Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game
1.) Ground chuck
Davis reached 100 yards, but it was not done with ease. Wisconsin never did fully establish the run and had to earn every yard they gained.
2.) Get your kicks on Route 66
It wasn't a huge factor, as even when Wisconsin pinned MSU inside the 20, the Spartans were able to move the ball with ease.
3.) Tackling Dummies
Well, it was big plays galore for the Spartans. While a few of the plays were receivers simply getting behind the defensive backs, a number were also the result of poor tackling.
4.) 1, 2, 3, kick
Wisconsin checked in at a very impressive 63%, though a lot of those were late in the game when MSU was sitting back on defense. When it counted, some early Wisconsin drives stalled when they had the opportunity to really put MSU in a hole.
The Spartans converted 44% of their 3rd down conversions, though in reality it was the big play that killed Wisconsin much more than long sustained drives.
Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game
1.) Ground chuck
With Sorgi starting, one might believe that Wisconsin will look to throw the ball. However, considering that the weather looks to be nasty, Sorgi has been turnover prone, MSU has a very good pass defense, and the Spartans have been gashed via the run, look for Wisconsin to run early and often. To win, I believe the Badgers not only need a good game on the ground, but a great game on the ground (200+ yards).
2.) Get your kicks on Route 66
Wisconsin's kickoff and punting game have been erratic at best. Michigan State boasts two of the best return men in the Big Ten in Herb Haygood and Charles Rodgers. Wisconsin needs a push in this category and cannot allow MSU's return game to dictate field position.
On the other side of the ball, Nick Davis should finally get a chance to return some punts (based on the numbers), so he could provide the same edge to the Badgers.
3.) Tackling Dummies
Duckett is big and tough while Rodgers and Haygood are big and terrific after the catch runners. Wisconsin must make the consistent tackles for 4 quarters and make MSU drive the length of the field without those broken tackles that lead to big plays.
4.) 1, 2, 3, kick
Under Jim Sorgi's command the last two years, Wisconsin is converting just 26% of their 3rd down attempts. A solid rushing game should help keep the offense in convertible 3rd down situations, but Sorgi must also make plays on 3rd down to keep drives alive and rest a depleted defense.
On the other side of the ball, Wisconsin's defense has done a decent job at times of putting teams in tough 3rd down situations, but has allowed conversions at a staggering rate (nearly 50% in Big Ten play). When putting MSU in tough situations on 3rd down, they need to find a way to force the punt.
PREDICTION
Like last week's game, this one could go either way. Unlike last week where I had a bad feeling, I have to believe that the Badgers have to put together a solid home game sooner or later. Compound that with the fact that Bobby Williams is 0-6 on the road in Big Ten games, and some of the intangibles look like they could work for the Badgers. Then again, the same kinds of numbers were there heading into the Indiana game. Overall, I look for a high scoring affair despite the cold and windy projected weather, with big plays determining the winner. Let's go 35-33 Badgers.
Some more matchup numbers:
(Big Ten Conference games only)
WISCONSIN'S TOTAL OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN STATE'S TOTAL
DEFENSE:
Wisconsin's offense has shown flashes of being very good. They haven't been consistent but have made a lot of big plays. The Spartan defense meanwhile has been victimized all year. Wisconsin should be able to move the ball. Advantage: WISCONSIN
MICHIGAN STATE 'S TOTAL OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S TOTAL
DEFENSE
Both teams are middle of the pack. Wisconsin has had troubles against both the run and the pass at times this year, while MSU is a much better passing team than most believe and have a running threat in Ducket. Advantage: MICHIGAN STATE
MICHIGAN STATE 'S RUSHING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S RUSHING
DEFENSE
Wisconsin began the year pretty strong against the run, but the injuries to the defensive line have left them vulnerable against the run. Even against Illinois, the Badgers surrendered nearly 180 yards on the ground. MSU has surprisingly had trouble getting the running game going due to difficulties in the offensive line. Despite the Spartans' troubles...Advantage: MICHIGAN STATE.
WISCONSIN'S RUSHING OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN STATE 'S RUSHING
DEFENSE
Wisconsin has been consistent as long as Anthony Davis has been healthy, while MSU has been a sieve on the ground. This is perhaps Wisconsin's biggest edge in the game. Advantage: WISCONSIN..
MICHIGAN STATE 'S PASSING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S PASSING
DEFENSE
Folks think of the Spartans as a big physical running team, but they have been one of the top passing teams in the conference while Wisconsin has been poor defending the pass overall. A lot rides on whether Smoker can make the key throws when he needs to (with Van Dyke out), as he should have the opportunity to make some big plays. Advantage: MICHIGAN STATE.
WISCONSIN'S PASSING OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN STATE 'S PASSING
DEFENSE
With Sorgi presumably starting, the Wisconsin rating could be taken up another notch. However, MSU ios the perfect team to face Sorgi as they have been strong defending the pass this season. Sorgi will have to be smart to pick his spots and be patient and not try to foce the big plays. Advantage: MICHIGAN STATE.
MICHIGAN STATE 'S SCORING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S SCORING
DEFENSE
Neither unit has been effective relative to the rest of the conference. However, MSU's total, while 9th in the Big Ten, is a solid total and is right there with most of the Big Ten. Wisconsin will be hard pressed to keep them under 30. Advantage: MICHIGAN STATE.
WISCONSIN'S SCORING OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN STATE 'S SCORING
DEFENSE
Again, neither unit has been great, and again, look for Wisconsin's point total to be somewhere around 30. Advantage: WISCONSIN.
MICHIGAN STATE PUNTING VS. WISCONSIN PUNT RETURNING
Wisconsin has had problems finding effective outside blockers on their return team, but if form holds, Nick Davis should get some chances to make some noise. Advantage: WISCONSIN.
WISCONSIN PUNTING VS. MICHIGAN STATE PUNT RETURNING
MSU sports a very dangerous return game. It will be interesting to see how RJ Morse performs in his first collegiate start. Outkicking his coverage (an admitted weakness of his) could be a huge problem for the Badgers. He needs to focus on safe unreturnable punts. Advantage: MICHIGAN STATE.
WISCONSIN KICK RETURNS VS. MICHIGAN STATE 'S KICK COVERAGE
This has been a continual problem for the Badgers, especially since the offense has had trouble putting drives together. Advantage: MICHIGAN STATE.
MICHIGAN STATE'S KICK RETURNS VS. WISCONSIN'S KICK COVERAGE.
Another big problem area for Wisconsin. Their kickoffs have been anemic while MSU has already returned two kickoffs the distance in conference play. Advantage: MICHIGAN STATE.
WISCONSIN 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS VS. MICHIGAN STATE 'S 3RD DOWN
DEFENSE
The big concern here is that Wisconsin has been a very poor 3rd down conversion team under Sorgi (under 30%). MSU is no great shakes thanks to their pourous run defense but... Advantage: MICHIGAN STATE.
MICHIGAN STATE 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS VS. WISCONSIN'S 3RD DOWN
DEFENSE
Wisconsin has been dreadful in this capacity. Advantage: MICHIGAN STATE.
TURNOVER MARGIN
No real edge.
WISCONSIN PASS RUSH VS. MICHIGAN STATE 'S PASS PROTECTION
MSU's offensive line has not played well. Despite Wisconsin's injuries up front, they should be able to get to the QB. Advantage: WISCONSIN.
MICHIGAN STATE PASS RUSH VS. WISCONSIN'S PASS PROTECTION
Good news with Sorgi starting...MSU is a very very poor pass rushing team. Advantage: WISCONSIN.
FG KICKING
MSU has had their troubles. Advantage: WISCONSIN.
PENALTIES
Advantage: WISCONSIN.
TIME OF POSSESSION
No edge.
WISCONSIN'S RED ZONE OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN STATE'S RED ZONE DEFENSE
On the surface, this looks like a push until you look at MSU's success at keeping teams out of the end zone. They have given up the big plays but have been very stingy in tight. Advantage: MICHIGAN STATE.
MICHIGAN STATE'S RED ZONE OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S RED ZONE DEFENSE.
Something has to give here. MSU mirrors their defense in that they have been more of a big play scoring team. However, Wisconsin has been horrible defending in the red zone, allowing a TD a staggering 64% of the time. Advantage: PUSH.
Here is how the Badgers and Spartans compare:
Total offense: WIS 61, MSU 49
Wisconsin has played the 20th toughest schedule in the nation. Michigan State has played the 41st toughest schedule in the country.
For Wisconsin...
Anthony Davis is 15th in the nation in yards rushing per game and 51st in all-purpose running.
(However, note that they are crediting him with 8 games played, while he has only played in 7. If you figure his correct per game average, he is 8th in the country in rushing and 29th in all-purpose running..)
Lee Evans is 26th in receptions per game, 40th in all-purpose running, and 4th in receiving yards per game.
For Michigan State...
TJ Duckett is 39th in rushing yards per game.
Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 2 point favorite. Howell has the Wisconsin as a 5.5 point favorite with an 60% chance of winning. Projected score is 28-23.
NOTES
Here are the game grades from the Michigan State game:
QB: C-
In the second half, Bollinger gave way to Jimmy Sorgi, and despite my criticism of his play the last few days, I have to grade him out at least decently for the poise he showed in his first collegiate game action. While he didn't throw the ball all that well, he was secure with the ball in a game that would have turned drastically with a Wisconsin turnover. And of course, I would be remiss if I didn't mention the nice game winning TD pass to Lee Evans.
RB: D+
WR: C+
TE: C
OL: D
DL: B-
LB: B
DB: B-
Special Teams: B+
Here are how Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game came out.
1.) Character
2.) "The Dayne defense"
3.) Chambers and the home run
4.) The broken record
PREDICTION
Here are Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game against the Sparties.
1.) Character
2.) "The Dayne defense"
3.) Chambers and the home run
4.) The broken record
Well, that is it for this week. I think this game is actually very simple. Contain Duckett, play hard and inspired, pass protect, and hit on a few big plays, and Wisconsin walks IMO.
PREDICTION
Sagarin has this game as a 1-2 point Badger victory. Howell has MSU as a 2.5 favorite, giving Wisconsin a 46% chance of winning. His projected final score is MSU 24-Wisconsin 22.
Here is how the Badgers and Spartans match up (Big Ten rank).
WISCONSIN'S TOTAL OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN STATE'S TOTAL
DEFENSE:
Wisconsin's stats are skewed somewhat by the suspension issue, but there is no doubting that the Badger offense has struggled. Some also might be surprised to see MSU's defense ranked so highly. If form holds, Wisconsin is not going to be able to churn out yards and must rely on some short field drives and capitalizing on their opportunities more so than they have done this year. Advantage: MSU
MICHIGAN STATE'S TOTAL OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S TOTAL
DEFENSE
While MSU's offense ranks only one spot higher than Wisconsin's, their yardage total is much higher. Again, if form holds, MSU should be able to move the ball. Advantage MSU.
MICHIGAN STATE'S RUSHING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S RUSHING
DEFENSE
Despite all the flak the Wisconsin rushing defense, in particular its linebackers, have taken, they are still doing a solid job of stuffing the run relative to the conference (which has been an offensive juggernaut this year so far). Duckett will get some yards (probably over 100), but should not dominate the Badgers up front. Slight advantage to Wisconsin.
WISCONSIN'S RUSHING OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN STATE 'S RUSHING
DEFENSE
Similarly on the other side of the ball, Wisconsin should be able to get some rushing yards against MSU. The fact that MSU is missing perhaps their best defender (TJ Turner) would lead me to think Wisconsin should be able to reach their seasonal average of around 200 yards. Advantage Wisconsin.
MICHIGAN STATE 'S PASSING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S PASSING
DEFENSE
MSU can't throw efficiently. They have some yardage, but it has been primarily a function of attempts. On the other hand, Wisconsin has been unable to stop the pass consistently. Three wild cards in this equation are the absence of Van Dyke, the absence of Jamar Fletcher, and the fact that MSU plays a traditional style offense. I would call this category a push, but a huge and possibly influential wild card in the game.
WISCONSIN'S PASSING OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN STATE 'S PASSING
DEFENSE
There isn't anything here that suggests Wisconsin will be able to throw the ball effectively. Advantage Michigan State.
MICHIGAN STATE'S SCORING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S SCORING
DEFENSE
Basically even here. Chalk MSU up for about 20-24 points right? Well, not quite. Take out Wisconsin's overtime points allowed and they rank 5th in scoring defense at about 20 PPG, putting MSU's total more into the range of 17-20. Still, basically even.
WISCONSIN'S SCORING OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN STATE 'S SCORING
DEFENSE
22 point right? Nope. Gotta take out Wisconsin's overtime points as well, putting them just under 20 PPG. Chalk up Wisconsin for 17-20 as well.
MICHIGAN STATE PUNTING VS. WISCONSIN PUNT RETURNING
Nick Davis has not been a factor in the return game this year. MSU has NOT punted the ball well, so Nick may get a chance this week. Edge to Wisconsin.
WISCONSIN PUNTING VS. MICHIGAN STATE PUNT RETURNING
Stemke should eliminate any threat. Edge to Wisconsin.
WISCONSIN KICK RETURNS VS. MICHIGAN STATE 'S KICK RETURNS
Edge to MSU. What has been wrong with the kick return unit this year?
WISCONSIN 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS VS. MICHIGAN STATE 'S 3RD DOWN
DEFENSE
Neither team has been very productive here. No edge.
MICHIGAN STATE 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS VS. WISCONSIN'S 3RD DOWN
DEFENSE
This is a key one. If Wisconsin can prevent the big plays early, something they have been unable to do, they should have good success as MSU has been woeful in their 3rd down conversions. Edge to Wisconsin.
TURNOVER MARGIN
Slight edge to Wisconsin. MSU has been INT prone.
WISCONSIN PASS RUSH VS. MICHIGAN STATE 'S PASS PROTECTION
MSU has had a little trouble protecting the passer, though Wisconsin has not been all that great in putting the heat on. No edge.
MICHIGAN STATE PASS RUSH VS. WISCONSIN'S PASS PROTECTION
Wisconsin has been dreadful with their pass rush. What might work in their favor is that MSU has not exactly been a dominant pass rushing team. Slight edge to MSU based on HOW bad Wisconsin has been.
FG KICKING
Pisetsky has been lousy, though most of his misses have been from 40+. Edge to MSU, but if the field is shortened, it is even.
PENALTIES
No edge.
TIME OF POSSESSION
No edge.
Here is the statistical rundown of the Michigan State-Wisconsin game.
Total offense: WIS 76, MSU 51
October 23, 1999
Here are the game grades for the Michigan State game.
QB: B
At times he was a little impatient in the pocket, a presence he is still working on.
RB: A
Michael Bennett was explosive early in the game, turning the corner twice for big yards. He had some trouble late though as his blocking disappeared.
Chad Kuhns consistently provided some big holes by blowing up the LB. Nothing new here.
WR: B
Demetrius Brown and Lee Evans each had one drop, though neither was an easy catch.
TE: A+
Retzlaff in particular was simply outstanding in his control of the corner. I counted at least 4 terrific seal blocks and numerous plays in which he generated substantial push. Most of the Badgers big running plays were due to great blocks from the tight ends.
Anelli also was very effective on the outside, with some solid footwork to seal off the outside against some good MSU players. He also had a nice release and catch to start the game.
OL: A
McIntosh was terrific. While he does not drive guys 10 yards into the backfield like Gibson did, you rarely see Chris get beat. His footwork is really solid and he always seems to be in good position to not only get his block, but also to maintain it.
Mark Tauscher also seemed to have one of his better games, getting good push from the other tackle spot.
The pass blocking was fine, though with all the short passes, they really didn't have very tough of a job.
DL: B-
The pass rush however was pretty substandard again with the only real pressure on Burke coming from the blitz.
Kolodziej got some penetration early and put some pressure on Burke from the inside, but that was about it.
Favret and Sprague were non-existent.
LB: A
Knight was much more quiet on this day, but did a pretty good job on Baker (again, very quietly).
DB: A
Burress was not a factor as Jamar took him right out of the game. Fletcher's tackling was terrific.
Myers had a sack and a pick early in the game.
They did not throw Echols was very much.
Doering was very sure in his tackling for the most part and broke up a TD pass to Burress. He did take a bad angle it appeared on Duckett's long run.
Special Teams: B
Stemke was great, with two skycrapper punts that helped contribute to muffs.
Davis had one good KOR.
Coverage was good.
Still waiting for another big special teams play (return, block, etc.). Maybe this week?
Here are how Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game played out.
1. Heat on Burke
2. Bollinger's consistency
3. The fade
4. Dan Lisowski/Donnell Thompson/Roger Knight vs. Chris Baker
5. Emotions
PREDICTION
Ummmmm....no.
"While I expect Wisconsin to put some pressure on Burke, I don't think they can get to him enough to take Burress and Scott (if he plays) out of the game."
Wisconsin did not put pressure on Burke, but did take the MSU receivers out of the game.
"This means some points for the Spartans. Wisconsin on the other hand is going to be running against a stone wall early as MSU will be intent on picking their poison...and it won't be Dayne. As the game progresses, if Bollinger can continue to make plays, the running game will slowly open up a bit. I look for some points to be scored early via the pass, say 17-14 by halftime, before both teams settle down a bit and Wisconsin's ground game starts to make small strides."
No. No. No. No. No.
" A big play for Jamar Fletcher (he is due) will turn the tide, and Wisconsin will win going away....27-20."
He did have a big game and they did win, though my analysis had little to do with what really happened.
Here are Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game against the Spartans.
1. Heat on Burke
2. Bollinger's consistency
3. The fade
4. Dan Lisowski/Donnell Thompson/Roger Knight vs. Chris Baker
5. Emotions
PREDICTION
Here is the statistical rundown of the Michigan State-Wisconsin game.
Sagarin has the game as a pick 'em. Howell's computer has the game as a 2.5 point
Badger victory with a predicted score of 26 to 24. Wisconsin has a 54% chance of
winning.
Sagarin now has Wisconsin at #14 in the country while Howell has them at 16th.
Here is how the Badgers and Spartans match up nationally.
Total offense: WIS 15, MSU 26
Nationally....
Here is how they stack up in the Big Ten Conference.
WISCONSIN'S TOTAL OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN STATE'S TOTAL
DEFENSE:
Michigan State has a very good defense, but they have given up their share of yardage,
especially though the air (more later). Also, as I have been harping on all week, 444 per
game is very very good for Wisconsin's offense. If Bollinger plays well and keeps the
Sparties off balance, they should be able to move the ball some on offense.
MICHIGAN STATE 'S TOTAL OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S TOTAL
DEFENSE
Michigan State's offense is a tad worse than Wisconsin's (statistically speaking) while
Wisconsin's defense is slightly better (due to better balance). Still, 412 yards per game is a
good offensive team and Wisconsin will have to bring their A-game to contain it.
MICHIGAN STATE 'S RUSHING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S RUSHING
DEFENSE
This is key for Wisconsin. If MSU generates any consistent running attack, mail it in as we
know their passing will be good. Keeping the Spartans in 3rd and long will be critical.
WISCONSIN'S RUSHING OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN STATE 'S RUSHING
DEFENSE
THE key matchup in this game. Something has to give. Wisconsin has the best non-service
academy running attack in the country after Iowa State, while MSU is number one in the
country as far as stuffing the run. The trench play is going to be a war and I really don't
know what to expect. 150 yards would be an excellent goal for Wisconsin to shoot for and
would be big towards winning the game. Still, it will be tough.
MICHIGAN STATE 'S PASSING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S PASSING
DEFENSE
Another case of strength vs. strength. Burress is the best receiver in the conference and
Burke is probably the second best pure passer in the league. Wisconsin has arguably the
best pair or corners. Look for around 200 yards passing for MSU, though possibly more if
they can't get the running game started.
WISCONSIN'S PASSING OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN STATE 'S PASSING
DEFENSE
And then we get to another very fun matchup to look at. Wisconsin has been coming on as
of late in the passing game while MSU was just torched last week by Air Brees. Bollinger
can get make some plays through the air, though one never knows when freshmen
mistakes will rear its ugly head. Knowing when to go for the big hits and when to eat the
ball will be huge for Brooks.
MICHIGAN STATE 'S SCORING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S SCORING
DEFENSE
Do the great matchups ever cease? Even though MSU is 5th in scoring, that top group of
5 is all right about the same. Wisconsin has only allowed 10 second half points in 4 Big
Ten games. MSU is too good to shut down, so a total of low 20's would be a nice goal
for the Badgers.
WISCONSIN'S SCORING OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN STATE 'S SCORING
DEFENSE
A similar matchup on the other side of the ball. Goodness this game looks close. Mid 20's
is the target here for Wisconsin.
MICHIGAN STATE PUNTING VS. WISCONSIN PUNT RETURNING
MSU's punting has been solid. Now, whether they choose to kick to Davis is another
matter. No edge to either team.
WISCONSIN PUNTING VS. MICHIGAN STATE PUNT RETURNING
For all his problems this year, Stemke is still the best in the league in the most important
punting stat there is. Even with Gari Scott back for MSU (if healthy), look for him to be
neutralized.
WISCONSIN KICK RETURNS VS. MICHIGAN STATE 'S KICK RETURNS
WISCONSIN 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS VS. MICHIGAN STATE 'S 3RD DOWN
DEFENSE
As I said last week, much of Wisconsin's success stems from their successful running
game, putting their QB in low risk situations. Considering MSU's run stinginess, their
33% figure surprised me somewhat. This could be an area to watch as Bollinger has been
terrific on 3rd down.
MICHIGAN STATE 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS VS. WISCONSIN'S 3RD DOWN
DEFENSE
As mentioned earlier, keeping MSU in 3rd and long will be the key here.
TURNOVER MARGIN
No real edge.
WISCONSIN PASS RUSH VS. MICHIGAN STATE 'S PASS PROTECTION
Wisconsin had struggled all year until the second half against Minnesota and against
Indiana. With Favret seemingly getting better, this could be a good omen for Wisconsin.
Burke has limited mobility, but has pretty good poise in the pocket. Pressure is a must.
MICHIGAN STATE PASS RUSH VS. WISCONSIN'S PASS PROTECTION
Anther key factor in the game. MSU will get some heat on Bollinger (provided they are
healthy). How he reacts will affect many of the factors already discussed. If he can show
good pocket awareness and escape containment, Wisconsin will be in business. If MSU
collapes the pocket, not allowing Bollinger to make plays against a suspect pass defense,
MSU will have a huge edge.
FG KICKING
No edge, though Edinger is considered the best in the league so maybe a slight edge to
MSU based purely on reputation.
PENALTIES
No edge.
TIME OF POSSESSION
Both team hold the ball pretty well. More important for Wisconsin though one would
think.
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Michigan State Depth Chart
Michigan State Stats
Analysis of Badgermaniac's Prediction
Badgermaniac's Prediction
Passing Offense: WIS 70, MSU 23
Passing Efficiency: WIS 39, MSU 43
Total Offense: WIS 55, MSU 61
Scoring Offense: WIS 64, MSU 41
Rushing Defense: WIS 43, MSU 20
Passing Defense: WIS 81, MSU 98
Passing Efficiency Defense: WIS 49, MSU 61
Total Defense: WIS 56, MSU 55
Scoring Defense: WIS 46, MSU 35
Turnover Margin: WIS 76, MSU 3
Net Punting: WIS 45 , MSU 6
Punt Returns: WIS 3 , MSU 98
Kickoff Returns: WIS 84 , MSU 10
Wisconsin is 3rd at 388 YPG while MSU is 7th at 368 YPG.
MSU is 4th at 382 YPG while Wisconsin is 8th at 369 YPG.
Michigan State is 11th in the conference at 103 YPG while Wisconsin is 7th at 135 YPG.
Wisconsin is 4th at 183 YPG while Michigan State is 4th at 109 YPG allowed.
Michigan State is 4th in efficiency with a rating of 133 and 1st in yardage at 278 YPG while Wisconsin is 7th in efficiency defense with an opposing rating of 120 and 8th in yardage allowed with 234 YPG.
Wisconsin is 3rd in efficiency with a rating of 134 and 5th in yardage at 205 YPG while Michigan State is 8th in efficiency defense with an opposing rating of 124 and is 11th in yardage allowed with 259 YPG.
Michigan State is 3rd in scoring at 30 PG while Wisconsin is allowing 23 PG, which is 8th.
Wisconsin is 6th at 26 PG while Michigan State is 7th with 21 points allowed per game.
Michigan State is 1st in gross average at 46 yards per punt, and 1st in net yardage at 42 yards per punt while Wisconsin is 1st in punt returns at 16 yards per return.
Wisconsin's gross average is 5th in the conference at 41 yards per punt with a net is of 37 which is 4th. Michigan State ranks 10th in punt returns at 7 yards per return.
Wisconsin is 8th at 19 yards per return while Michigan State is 1st allowing 16 yards per return.
Michigan State is 1st at 25 yards per return while Wisconsin is 11th allowing 22 per return.
Wisconsin is 3rd in the conference at 44% while Michigan State ranks 6th at 37% allowed.
Michigan State is 9th at 36% while Wisconsin ranks 3rd at 36% allowed.
Wisconsin is 8th at -3 while Michigan State is 1st at +15
Wisconsin is 5th in the conference with 24 sacks while Michigan State ranks 7th with 22 sacks allowed.
Michigan State is 1st with 38 sacks while Wisconsin ranks 10th in sacks allowed with 28.
Wisconsin is 11 for 17 for 65% while Michigan State is 21 for 26 for 81%.
Wisconsin is 2nd in fewest penalties with 39 yards per game. Minnesota is 11th with 85 yards in penalty yardage per game.
Wisconsin ranks 2nd at 31+ minutes per game while Michigan State is 9th at 28+ minutes per game.
Wisconsin is 9th in red zone efficiency at 80% (54% TDs) while Michigan State is 10th allowing scores 89% of the time (61% TDs).
Michigan State is 4th at 85% (52% TDs) while Wisconsin is 8th, allowing scores 83% of the time (46% TDs).
Michigan State Depth Chart
Michigan State Stats
Wisconsin is 7th at 356 YPG while Michigan State is 9th at 411 YPG.
Michigan State is 6th at 375 YPG while Wisconsin is 7th at 396 YPG.
Michigan State is 9th in the conference at 107 YPG while Wisconsin is 7th at 191
YPG.
Wisconsin is 5th at 170 YPG while Michigan State is 11th at 219 YPG allowed.
Michigan State is 4th in efficiency at 132 and 1st in overall passing at 268 YPG while Wisconsin is 7th in passing defense at 206 YPG and 8th in pass defense efficiency at 132.
Wisconsin is 3rd in efficiency with a rating of 135 and 8th in yardage at 187 YPG while
Michigan State is 2nd in efficieny defense with an opposing rating of 104 and 4th in
yardage allowed rating of 192 YPG.
Michigan State is 9th in scoring at 25.3 PG while Wisconsin is allowing 32 PG, 10th in
the conference.
Wisconsin is 7th at 26.2 PG while Michigan State is 8th with 27.7 points allowed.
Michigan State is 9th in gross average and 8th in net yardage while Wisconsin is 6th
in punt returns.
Wisconsin's gross average is 6th in the conference, and their net is7th. Michigan State
ranks 2nd in punt returns.
Wisconsin last at 14.0 per return while Michigan State is #1 at 14.1 per return.
Wisconsin is 7th in kick coverage at 19.4 per return while MSU is 1st in returns at 26.9 per return.
Wisconsin is 7th in the conference at 40% while Michigan State ranks 6th at 42%
allowed.
Michigan State is 4th in the conference at 43% while Wisconsin ranks 10TH at 46%
allowed.
Wisconsin is 5th at +0 while Michigan State is 9th at -2
Wisconsin is 2nd in the conference with 13 sacks while Michigan State ranks 11th with 11
sacks allowed.
Michigan State is last with just 2 sacks while Wisconsin ranks 8th in sacks allowed
with 10.
Wisconsin is 5 for 8 for 63% while Michigan State is 2 of 6 for 33%.
Wisconsin is 2nd in fewest penalites with just 33 yards in penalties per game. Michigan State is 9th with 58 yards in penalties per game.
Wisconsin is 6th at 30+ minutes. MSU is 4th at 31+ minutes.
Wisconsin is 4th in red zone offense, scoring 87% of the time (44% TD rate). Michigan State' defense is 4th in red zone defense, holding their opponents to and 82 % success rate (18% TD rate).
Michigan State is last in red zone offense, scoring 77% of the time (15% TD rate). Wisconsin's defense is last in red zone defense, allowing their opponents to score every time they have been in the red zone this year (64% TD rate).
Passing offense: WIS 73, MSU 28
Passing efficiency: WIS 53, MSU 22
Rushing offense: WIS 40, MSU 78
Scoring offense: WIS 60, MSU 57
Total defense: WIS 55, MSU 56
Rushing defense: WIS 68, MSU 93
Passing defense: WIS 40, MSU 11
Passing efficiency defense: WIS 55, MSU 11
Scoring defense: WIS 75, MSU 47
Turnover margin: WIS 49, MSU 49
Kirk Munden is 67th in punting.
Nick Davis is 78th in punt returns and 56th in kickoff returns.
Mark Neuser is 94th in field goals per game.
Mike Allen is 71st in field goals per game.
Jeff Smoker is 23d in passing efficiency and 92nd in total offense..
Herb Haygood is 72nd in receptions per game, 1st in kickoff returns, 45th in all-purpose running, and 73rd in receiving yards per game.
Charles Rodgers is 99th in receptions per game, 13th in punt returns, and 46th in receiving yards per game.
Broderick Nelson is 2nd in interceptions per game.
Josh Shaw is 60th in interceptions per game.
Craig Jarrett is 23rd in punting.
David Rayner is 94th in field goals per game.
October 14, 2000
In the first half, Brooks Bollinger was dazed and confused, unable to complete a single pass. Upon knowing he was playing a concussion, it makes sense, though we don't really know if this had much to do with his play. He did have a key 40 yard scramble that set up the only first half touchdown.
Although it must be pointed out that Michael Bennett had far from stellar blocking, I believe this was his worst game this season. He seemed to be the Michael Bennett of old in that he had trouble with his timing and hitting the hole at the right time. While I didn't see any blown big gainers, there were more yards to be had than Bennett picked up. When he did get in the open field, he had a couple of nifty moves.
They got some better separation at times during the game, most notably deep where TDs could have been there with better throws from the QBs. However, early in the game the routes seemed rather lethargic, leaving Bollinger out to dry a few times, and in the second half, there were a few catches that needed to be made but weren't. Down the stretch, the receivers came up big though, with a game saving catch on 3rd and 9 from Chris Chambers and the game winner from Lee Evans on the second play following.
Along with the offensive line, they were handled pretty well on the perimeter, penning up Bennett without a whole lot of room to run. Mark Anelli in particular did get involved with the passing game early in the second half after some Sorgi scrambles.
Once again, they had a rough game. Jeremy Dox was replaced early by Jason Jowers, who was a little more stable, but didn't really offer any more of a push up front. MSU blitzed rather heavily early, flushing out Bollinger continuously. In the second half, the protection was decent, though it was hard to tell whether they blocked that much better or MSU called off the dogs, preferring to sit back in coverage against Sorgi. However, the running game was totally ineffective in the second half.
Hamstrung by injuries to Sprague, Favret, and McGrew, the unit hung in there and played pretty hard. They lost contain a few times on the outside, specifically against the option (though the safeties were responsible for some of this as well), but Duckett was not allowed to gash them up the gut. Wendell Bryant was fairly active again, though not dominating throughout. Little pass rush again.
A solid effort from a maligned group. The linebackers were active and played assignment sure football. Roger Knight made some plays and Nick Greisen was a stalwart at the line of scrimmage against Duckett. Knight was burned on a long pass to the TE, but it was a terrific throw and an even better catch. Short of Brees and Stratton, there aren't too many combos who are going to make that play consistently. Bryson Thompson also came up big with a huge stop on 3rd and inches.
Other than one horrible play by BJ Tucker, the corners were solid. The Spartans did not throw much at Fletcher, and Echols had two huge interceptions. In addition, Michael Broussard held his own for the most part in the late stages of the game. Without Doering, it was obvious how well he plays the option as Devery Hughes had trouble filling the holes, thereby allowing some big runs. In addition, Hughes was burned on a skinny post play, though the ball was dropped. Carlease Clark came on for Hughes and did a much better job in run support.
Kevin Stemke was again the main man, with a terrific job of punting, especially considering the blocking and snapping were subpar at times. Pisetsky hit a big kick at the end of the half, and the punt coverage team capitalized on a brutal muff by Foster of MSU to get a field position altering turnover. Nick Davis had little to run with.
They seemed a bit flat again, but without so many players, that may be a function of the talent level on the field. However, anyone who dared question the effort of these kids should now have their answer. They had ample reason to pack it in and yet they scraped and clawed and hung in the game until players stepped up and made play. Gutty, gutty effort.
Well, a decent effort, though they were shaky early again. However, it was often the option and outside the tackle runs that did the MSU damage. Mahlik, Bryant, and the LBs did a decent job at the point of attack. The free safetys had trouble wrapping up on a few that made the point of attack look weaker than it was. Great job in the second half.
Chambers was a total non-factor, though MSU did shut down Bennett like I expected (to some degree) them to be able to do. Wisconsin missed on two home run balls earlier in the game (one by Bollinger, one by Sorgi), but hit the big fly in the top of the 9th when they needed it.
It wasn't perfect. It wasn't pretty. But, for the most part, the tackles hung in there and gave the QBs a chance to make a few plays.
I think I hit pretty close as to the tone of the game. Tack on one TD to both teams and we have a direct hit.
Normally, I am about the last person you would ever expect to be spouting about these intangibles (as I often think they are just fan-speculating), but I really think it is significant this week. Both teams are in major downer mode and what teams we see on the field remain to be seen. MSU has a long history of quitting once things get rough, while Wisconsin fans can't be encouraged by the last trip to East Lansing under similiar circumstances.
While I do not feel that oft comparisons between Dayne and Duckett are deserved as of yet (other than body type), the reality is that defensing Duckett should be similiar to what defenses tried to do (to varying success) with Dayne. The DL is going to need to get early penetration and it is key that the LBs get early contact with Duckett before he starts "running downhill". Keeping Duckett under control early in the down sequence will go a long way towards controlling the game.
It is becoming apparent that this team is not going to be able to ride Bennett in the same way that they at times rode Dayne. As impressive as Bennett is, I don't know that he is the kind of guy you can just give the ball to 8 or 9 straight plays. Although I want to see an even firmer committment to the run than we saw against OSU, I think this team desperately needs to hit a home run or two, specifically to Chambers. Bollinger is going to have to hit Chris when he is open to help open the defense.
I suppose I have to throw this one in again, just because it is going to be a key factor the rest of the year...specifically the pass protection on the edge from Lamont, Jakubowski, and Johnson. On the bright side, MSU has nowhere near the pass rush that the Buckeyes have, but it is still a concern.
Unfortunately, Wisconsin has not yet proven they can play a complete game, and with the injury situation not being good (I heard Favret almost definitely won't play), this week probably isn't the week to expect it. So, I think they will play hard and contain Duckett, but let's assume the big passing plays still don't develop. Therefore, I see a somewhat sloppy game marred by a ton of punts. Final score, Wisconsin 21-Michigan State 17 (though I don't feel too strongly about the prediction).
Wisconsin is 9th at 337 YPG while Michigan State is 3rd at 316 YPG.
Michigan State is 8th at 382 YPG while Wisconsin is 8th at 393 YPG.
Michigan State is 7th in the conference at 190 YPG while Wisconsin is 4th at 190.
YPG.
Wisconsin is 4th at 219 YPG while Michigan State is 7th at 149 YPG allowed.
Michigan State is 9th in efficiency with a rating of 107 and 8th in yardage at 193 YPG while Wisconsin is 8th in efficieny defense with an opposing rating of 120 and a yardage
allowed rating of 254 YPG, 10th in the conference.
Wisconsin is 10th in efficiency with a rating of 103 and 11th in yardage at 121 YPG while
Michigan State is 5th in efficieny defense with an opposing rating of 113 and is first in
yardage allowed with 168 YPG.
Michigan State is 9th in scoring at 21.4 PG while Wisconsin is allowing 23 PG, 7th in
the conference.
Wisconsin is 8th at 22.5 PG while Michigan State is 5th with 22.6 points allowed.
Michigan State is 9th in gross average and 8th in net yardage while Wisconsin is 3rd in punt returns with 11.9 per return.
Stemke's gross average is 1st in the conference, as is his net average. Michigan State
ranks 5th in punt returns at 11.3.
Wisconsin is #11 while Michigan State is #2. No info available on kick coverage.
Wisconsin is 7th in the conference at 38% while Michigan State ranks 7th at 38%
allowed.
Michigan State is 11th in the conference at 27% while Wisconsin ranks 2nd at 31% allowed.
Wisconsin is 5th at +1 while Michigan State is 10th at -3
Wisconsin is 6th in the conference with 12 sacks while Michigan State ranks 8th with 15
sacks allowed.
Michigan State is 8th with 8 sacks while Wisconsin ranks 10th in sacks allowed
with 23.
Wisconsin is 7 for 13 for 54% while Michigan State is 8 of 11 for 73%.
Wisconsin is 6th in fewest penalites with 35 (6 games). Michigan State is 5th with 33 (5 games).
Wisconsin ranks 1st at 32+ minutes per game while Michigan State ranks 3rd at 31+ minutes per game.
Passing offense: WIS 108, MSU 77
Rushing offense: WIS 15, MSU 24
Scoring offense: WIS 71, MSU 79
Total defense: WIS 87, MSU 33
Rushing defense: WIS 52, MSU 62
Passing defense: WIS 101, MSU 14
Scoring defense: WIS 54, MSU 58
Bollinger didn't turn the ball over (again) and was pretty sharp in the passing game, though all of his passes were of the short variety. Chambers bailed him out a few times but generally Brooks made some nice reads and throws on the run for some key first downs.
Ron Dayne was awesome. What struck me was his great patience and vision thoughout the game. Dayne was brilliant in his following of the lead blocks, when to kick it outside, when to just lower his head, etc. He had numerous runs where he moved the pile simply on his own.
Nothing big here, but some key third down catches from Chambers, who had some terrific hands catches. Chambers was also very effective downfield as a blocker, including a nice block on Dayne's second TD.
The players of the game in my opinion were Dague Retzlaff and Mark Anelli.
Good solid push througout by everybody.
The run defense was pretty good. Duckett was able to get some yards against them though much of that was simply TJ just dragging the defenders along for the ride as opposed to poor positioning. Still, they need to make plays when they have a shot. Still, MSU was not able to generate any holes after the initial drive.
Both Ghidorzi and Thompson were effective plugging holes. They are rarely out of position.
No blown coverages. Wisconsin was content to allow the short stuff and make the stick afterwards.
Pisetsky nailed four field goals in a tough wind.
Wisconsin did not really put tremendous pressure on Burke. They were consistently around him, but did not close the deal that often. However, the coverage downfield was so good, that Burke simply was not effective.
Bollinger did not provide consistent big plays, but he didn't have to. In the meantime, he was very consistent, making some nice early throws and playing with poise when it was required.
Not an issue.
Perhaps due to my warning (big chuckle), the Badger staff inserted Roger Knight into the starting lineup to counter Baker. The ploy worked as Baker was not a factor.
Wisconsin came out and rammed the ball down the throats of the Spartans, establishing exactly who the better team was within the first portions of the first quarter.
"I think both teams will have some success through the air. "
Wisconsin finally displayed some long overdue pass rush against Indiana last week, and they will need to continue that trend tomorrow. MSU's running game should be no more than mediocre (at least against Wisconsin's run defense) putting even greater pressure on Burke to lead his team to some points. The bad news is that he is perfectly capable of doing so. However, he is NOT mobile and can be rattled IF Wisconsin can get to him.
Just as much of MSU's offense must come via the forward pass, Wisconsin is going to need a big game from Brooks Bollinger, since running non-stop on MSU's excellent front 7 will be next to impossible. I would expect Dayne to have his moments, but Wisconsin MUST have a credible passing attack (without turnovers) to be able to move the ball consistently. Can Bollinger play his 4th straight error free game, especially when facing the best pass rush he has faced all year?
Wisconsin corners have been super this year in general, but have had trouble defending the fade pass, even when coverage has been good. With big receivers including Plaxico Burress, MSU figures to simply throw the ball up and let Burress just go get it. The Wisconsin corners must make plays when given the opportunity on the deep jump balls.
Baker is a valuable pass catching tight end. Over the years, Wisconsin has had some trouble defending the TE out of the backfield, often due to the physical limitations of their linebackers. The three aforementioned LBs do most of the pass coverage from the LB position and look to draw the task of keeping Baker in check. If Wisconsin cannot control him especially in 3rd down situations, it provides the Spartans big play players a chance to do what they do best....make big plays.
I normally don't like to look at things like intangibles as I think they are generally overrated. But, I think they may apply in this case. How does MSU respond to their first loss last week? How does Wisconsin come off of last week's IU whipping? How does Wisconsin react if MSU shuts down Dayne totally for a quarter or two or if the MSU DL rattles Bollinger? Can MSU thrive in a hostible environment like Camp Randall? Which team is more prepared to take a war into the 4th quarter?
I think both teams will have some success through the air. While I expect Wisconsin to put some pressure on Burke, I don't think they can get to him enough to take Burress and Scott (if he plays) out of the game. This means some points for the Spartans. Wisconsin on the other hand is going to be running against a stone wall early as MSU will be intent on picking their poison...and it won't be Dayne. As the game progresses, if Bollinger can continue to make plays, the running game will slowly open up a bit. I look for some points to be scored early via the pass, say 17-14 by halftime, before both teams settle down a bit and Wisconsin's ground game starts to make small strides. A big play for Jamar Fletcher (he is due) will turn the tide, and Wisconsin will win going away....27-20.
Passing offense: WIS 85, MSU 25
Rushing offense: WIS 5, MSU 53
Scoring offense: WIS 18, MSU 22
Total defense: WIS 13, MSU 32
Rushing defense: WIS 23, MSU 1
Passing defense: WIS 18, MSU 64
Scoring defense: WIS 7, MSU 25
Turnover margin: WIS 41, MSU 65
Brooks Bollinger is 39th in passing efficiency.
Bill Burke is 30th in passing efficiency, 31st in total offense, and 24th in passing
yards.
Ron Dayne is 3rd in rushing, 5th in scoring, and 19th in all-purpose yardage.
Lloyd Clemons is 26th in rushing.
Plaxico Burress is 19th in receiving yards and 49th in receptions.
Vitaly Pisetsky is 22nd in scoring and 17th in FG/game.
Paul Edinger is 16th in scoring and 12th in FG/game.
Kevin Stemke is 38th in punting.
Craig Jarrett is 9th in punting.
Nick Davis is 25th in kickoff returns, and 11th in punt returns.
Gari Scott is 18th in punt returns.
Wisconsin is 3rd at 444 YPG while Michigan State is 4th at 328 YPG.
Michigan State is 5th at 412 YPG while Wisconsin is 2nd at 285 YPG.
Michigan State is 6th in the conference at 152 YPG while Wisconsin is 3rd at 108
YPG.
Wisconsin is 1st at 273 YPG while Michigan State is 1st at 40 YPG allowed.
Michigan State is 2nd in efficiency with a rating of 144 and 3rd in yardage at 260 YPG
while Wisconsin is 2nd in efficieny defense with an opposing rating of 102 and a yardage
allowed rating of 176 YPG, also 2nd in the conference.
Wisconsin is 6th in efficiency with a rating of 127 and 9th in yardage at 170 YPG while
Michigan State is 9th in efficieny defense with an opposing rating of 123 and is dead last
yardage allowed rating of 288 YPG.
Michigan State is 5th in scoring at 34.1 PG while Wisconsin is allowing 13.1 PG, 2nd in
the conference.
Wisconsin is 3rd at 35.4 PG while Michigan State is 5th with 19.4 points allowed.
Michigan State is 2nd in gross average and also 2nd in net yardage while Wisconsin is 3rd
in punt returns.
Stemke's gross average is 3rd in the conference, though his net is now 1st. Michigan State
ranks 4th in punt returns.
Wisconsin is 1st in the conference at 49% while Michigan State ranks 6th at 33%
allowed.
Michigan State is 6th in the conference at 38% while Wisconsin ranks 1st at 27%
allowed.
Wisconsin is 6th at +2 while Michigan State is 9th at -1
Wisconsin is 6th in the conference with 18 sacks while Michigan State ranks 6th with 15
sacks allowed.
Michigan State is tied for 1st with 27 sacks while Wisconsin ranks 5th in sacks allowed
with 14.
Wisconsin is 11 for 13 for 85% while Michigan State is 12 of 15 for 80%.
Wisconsin is 8th in fewest penalites with 44. Michigan State is 9th with 49.
Wisconsin ranks 1st at 34+ minutes per game while Michigan State ranks 3rd at 30+
minutes per game.
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