The question often arose as to whether or not Ron Dayne was a great back, or whether he was simply a good back piling up superficial numbers against mediocre teams. This belief often rose from the perception that a number of his poorest games came in a national forum, most notably the Syracuse Kick Off Classic Game and the Outback Bowl against Georgia. The fact that he didnt play for a Nebraska, Michigan, or Florida State, etc. also didn't exactly help his perception.
Any player rating system in football is bound to be at least partially (if not primarily) subjective, as the variables in evaluating any player are extremely dificult to control for (different schemes, different offensive lines, different schedules, etc.) Still, lets see if we can get to the bottom of the Ron Dayne... "overrated or great" debate in a factual empirical way.
Spring of 1999
First, lets begin by looking at his raw numbers:
FRESHMAN YEAR: 325 carries, 2,109 yards, 21 TDs.
SOPHOMORE YEAR: 263 carries, 1,457, 15 TDs.
Dayne is 16th in career rushing in Big Ten History, needing 2,024 yards to break Archie Griffins conference record.
Dayne's yardage total is the second-highest (223 yards fewer than Herschel Walker) mark in NCAA history for yards gained as a freshman and sophomore. His career average per game (153.4) trails only Ed Marinaro, O.J. Simpson and Walker in NCAA history.
CONCLUSION: Certainly, these numbers when taken alone suggest that he is among the elite backs of college football history.
Now, I will look at the various arguments often used by Dayne detractors in claiming he is overrated.
1.) "Dayne carries the ball more than other backs."
What exactly constitutes a heavy work load?
Lets look at the carries by last years top backs in the Big Ten and around the country (1,200 yards minimum)-no bowl games included.
Amos Zereoue (WV)-264-1505
Ricky Williams (TX)-279-1893
RON DAYNE (WI)-249-1421
Jamal Lewis (UT)-232-1364
Ahman Green (NEB)-278-1877
Tavian Banks (IA)-246-1639
Travis Prentice (MOH)-296-1549
Dwayne Harris (TOL)-254-1278
Curtis Enis (PSU)-228-1363
Robert Holcombe(ILL)-294-1253
Sedrick Irvin (MSU)-231-1211
Fred Taylor (UF)-214-1292
Autry Denson (ND)-264-1268
In relation to these 14 top rushers, Dayne ranked number 8 in terms of total carries. Of the 6 below him, only Tavian Banks had more yards (and he is also a candidate for racking up the yards on poor teams question).
CONCLUSION: Clearly, Dayne did not get the ball significantly more or less often than other top running backs.
Lets go back to his freshman year. Well take a look at the Big Ten numbers (since I dont have the NCAA stats).
RON DAYNE (WIS)-325-2109
Darnell Autry (NU)-280-1452
Alex Smith (IND)-292-1248
Pepe Pearson (OSU)-299-1484
Robert Holcombe (ILL)-260-1281
Sedrick Shaw (IA)-224-1116
Dayne had more carries than anyone else in the Big Ten in 96, though not by a huge margin (about 2-3 carries per game). However, nobody was even close to him in total yards. A more accurate comparison might be comparing Dayne to all rushers who have run for 2,000 yards in a season.
Barry Sanders (OKST)-373-2850
Marcus Allen (USC)-433-2427
Mike Rozier (NEB)-300-2295
Troy Davis (ISU)-402-2185
Tony Dorsett (PTT)-370-2150
Byron Hanspard (TT)-357-2148
Rashaan Salaam (COL)-325-2138
RON DAYNE (WIS)-325-2109
Wasean Tait (TOL)-387-2090
Lorenzo White (MSU)-419-2066
Charles White (USC)-332-2050
Troy Davis (ISU)-345-2010
Of the 11 individuals who have run for 2,000 yards (Davis twice), only Mike Rozier did it in
fewer carries. Only Rozier, Sanders, and Salaam averaged more yards per carry.
CONCLUSION: Clearly, if anything, Dayne gets the ball somewhat LESS than other great backs in college football history!
2.) "Dayne runs for most of his yards against the bad teams."
Lets examine Dayne game by game througout his career. Bowl teams are indicated with a *.
FRESHMAN YEAR
Eastern Michigan-8-53
UNLV-13-90
Stanford-12-75
*Penn State-24-129
(Dayne had not yet started any games. Rather, other than the PSU game, he was generally getting 4th quarter mop up duty. Following the PSU game, he became the starter ahead of Carl McCullough)
*Ohio State-21-65
*Northwestern-28-139
*Michigan State-15-81
Purdue-30-244
Minnesota-50-297
*Iowa-17-62
Illinois-41-289
Hawaii-36-339
*Utah-30-246
SOPHOMORE YEAR
*Syracuse-13-46
Boise State-DNP (injury)
San Jose State-20-254
San Diego State-26-145
Indiana-34-202
Northwestern-25-93
Illinois-28-207
*Purdue-26-141
Minnesota-40-183
*Iowa-7-24 (removed in 1st quarter-injury)
*Michigan-DNP (injury)
*Penn State-30-126
*Georgia-14-36
Now, the first game to consider separately is the Iowa game in his soph year. Dayne severely sprained an anlke in the first series of the game, and never returned. I will throw out this game when figuring averages.
First, lets get pure average:
Non-Bowl Teams: 363-2471, 6.8 yds per carry, 247 yards per game.
Bowl Teams: 218-1071, 4.9 yards per carry, 97 yards per game.
Obviously a huge difference. Now, lets take it a step further. Some have said, "Utah should not be included in this bunch at all since their defense was poor." For arguments sake, lets throw out the Utah game. But, to be fair, if you are going to throw out his best game, lets also throw out his worst game, Georgia. Now his number look like this.
Bowl Teams: 174-789, 4.5 yards per carry, 88 yards per game.
If you take out his best and worst games against bowl teams, his number certainly decrease, but are not significantly different.
CONCLUSION: Of the top, I would say that his numbers against bowl teams are decent but not great. His numbers against non-bowl teams are staggering.
So, the quetion becomes, what is to be expected from a back when you are facing a bowl team? What do other top backs do against similar competition?
First, lets look at the top 14 rushing games in Big Ten History:
Anthony Thompson (IND)-52-377 vs. Wisconsin, 1989
Eric Allen (MSU)-29-350 vs. Purdue, 1971
Ron Johnson (MI)-31-347 vs. Wisconsin, 1968
RON DAYNE (WI)-36-339 vs. Hawaii, 1996
Mike Adamle (NW)-40-316 vs. Wisconsin, 1969
Eddie George (OSU)-36-314 vs. Illinois, 1995
Tavian Banks (IA)-29-314 vs. Tulsa, 1997
Tim Biakabutuku (MI)-37-313 vs. OSU, 1995
Billy Marek (WI)-43-304 vs. Minnesota, 1974
RON DAYNE (WI)-50-297 vs. Minnesota, 1996
Byron Sanders (NW)-46-295 vs. Minnesota, 1987
Chris Darkins (MIN)-38-294 vs. Purdue, 1995
Lorenzo White (MSU)-56-292 vs. Indiana, 1987
RON DAYNE (WI)-41-289 vs. Illinois, 1996
First, it is interesting that Dayne is the only player on the list with more than one game over 289 yards in Big Ten history, having accomplished it 3 times. Now, of these 14 games, only 2 of them were accomplished against good teams (Biakabutuka and White). And of these games against good teams, White did need 56 carries to accomplish the mark (averaging only 5.2 YPC).
CONCLUSION: Dayne racks up his biggest yardage games against poor teams, but this is generally the case with all great rushing games. There are some exceptions, but most are done against the "stinkers".
Now lets look at the other NCAA rushers who gained over 1,200 yards in 97. First, notice that many many top rushers have very poor or at least mediocre games even during great seasons, just as Dayne has:
Amos Zeroue-20-52 vs. BC
Ricky Williams-13-36 vs. UCLA
Jamal Lewis-17-68 vs. Southern Miss, 17-67 vs. Alabama(not including his 3 games beginning the year when he was not the primary ball carrier)
Tavian Banks-22-84 vs. Ohio State
Travis Prentice-13-58 vs. Army
Dwayne Harris-13-55 vs. Norhern Illinois
Robert Holcombe-23-63 vs. Wisconsin
Sedrick Irvin-19-61 vs. Ohio State
Autry Denson-15-59 vs. Michigan State
Denson-25-72 vs. Michigan
Now lets take a look at each runners comparsion against bowl teams vs. non-bowl teams:
Zeroue-120-705 yards, 5.9 YPC, 141 YPG against non-bowl teams
145-783 yards, 5.4 YPC, 157 YPG against bowl teams
COMMENT: Certainly didnt affect Zeroue much playing against the good teams.
Williams-194-1345 yards, 6.9 YPC, 192 YPG against non-bowl teams
85-533 yards, 6.3 YPC, 133 YPG against bowl competition
COMMENT: Williams stats dropped substantially against the good teams, though still very respectable.
Lewis-131-744 yards, 5,7 YPC, 124 YPG against non-bowl teams
101-620 yards, 6.1 YPC, 104 YPG against bowl teams
COMMENT: Lewis stats went down slightly, though not significantly.
Green-165-1187 yards, 7.2 YPC, 148 YPG against non-bowl teams.
113-690 yards, 6.1 YPC, 172 YPG against bowl teams.
COMMENT: Green is an interesting case. His yards per game went up 24 yards against the good teams, but his yards per carry went down by over a yard, though still excellent. Why? Well, in the non-bowl team games, he averaged 21 carries per game, obviously pulled early in games. Meanwhile, he averaged 28 carries per game against the good teams, needing to stay in the game longer because the games were tighter.
Banks-161-1185 yards, 7.4 YPC, 169 YPG against non-bowl teams.
85-454 yards, 5.3 YPC, 114 YPG againt bowl teams.
COMMENT: Banks numbers drop significantly.
Travis Prentice-219-1179 yards, 5.4 YPC, 147 YPG against non-bowl teams.
77-370 yards, 4.8 YPC, 123 YPG against bowl teams.
COMMENT: Slight drop. Big game (200+ yards) against Marshall saved him.
Dwayne Harris-192-1014 yards, 5.3 YPC, 127 YPG against non-bowl teams.
62-264 yards, 4.3 YPC, 132 YPG against bowl teams.
COMMENT: Pretty similar.
Enis-97-534 yards, 5.5 YPC, 107 YPG against non-bowl teams.
131-829 yards, 6.3 YPC, 138 YPG against bowl teams.
COMMENT: Enis really kicked some major backside against the bowl teams. Outstanding.
Holcombe-84-349 yards, 4.1 YPC, 116 YPG against non-bowl teams.
210-904 yards, 4.3 YPC, 113 YPG against bowl teams.
COMMENT: Holcombe is another that is tough to figure in that 8 of the 11 games Illinois played were against bowl teams, many of them blow outs. Was Holcombe able to accumulate a lot of garbage time yards against second string defenses? I dont know, but his number are consistent from one group to the other.
Irvin-121-674 yards, 5.6 YPC, 112 YPG against non-bowl teams.
110-567 yards, 5.1 YPC, 113 YPG against bowl teams.
COMMENT: Saved by a 238 yard onslaught against PSU in the final game, Irvins numbers match up nicely.
Taylor-82-581 yards, 7.1 YPC, 116 YPG against non-bowl teams.
132-711 yards, 5.4 YPC, 119 YPG against bowl teams.
COMMENT: Although his numbers per game are similar, his yards per carry dropped quite a bit. This was another case of the "Ahman Green" factor, many more carries against the good teams than the bad teams out of necessity.
Denson-116-598 yards, 5.2 YPC, 120 YPG vs. non-bowl teams.
122-526 yards, 4.3 YPC, 88 YPG vs. bowl teams.
COMMENT: Denson was handled well by bowl teams.
Now, lets tabulate the overall numbers so we can compare them to Daynes.
ALL RUSHERS:1681 carries for 10,095 yards, 6YPC, 138 YPG vs. non-bowl games.
1373 carries for 7,251 yards, 5.3 YPC, 123 YPG vs. bowl teams.
CONCLUSION: Typically, star backs run for a little bit under 1 yard fewer per carry against good teams. They run for 15 fewer yards per game against good teams.
Lets go back and check out Daynes numbers.
Non-Bowl Teams: 363-2471, 6.8 yds per carry, 247 yards per game.
Bowl Teams: 218-1071, 4.9 yards per carry, 97 yards per game.
CONCLUSION: Nobody even touches Dayne against non-bowl games. He clearly is the best runner in the country against non-bowl teams. However, when facing bowl caliber teams, his number do not stack up. He is 26 yards per game under the average for top backs against bowl teams. On first inspection, it appears that the criticizm of Dayne is extremely valid.
Lets look a little bit deeper. Daynes yards per carry against bowl teams is a respectable 4.9 per carry, while the average of top backs is only slightly higher at 5.3 yards per carry. This leads us to the next question, does Ron Dayne get fewer carries per game against top teams than most backs? I have already touched upon Ahman Green and Fred Taylor who definitely fit into the classification of players who get the ball more against good teams.
Average carries per game of the star backs against non-bowl teams-23
Average carries per game of the star back against bowl teams-23
CONCLUSION: Green and Taylor are the exceptions (due to the superiority of their teams perhaps???). Backs generally average exactly the same amount of carries regardless of the quality of the opponent.
Again, lets check out Dayne:
Average carries per game against non-bowl teams-36
Average carries per game against bowl teams-20.
CONCLUSION: Dayne gets many more carries per game against non-bowl teams! I would hypothesize that since Wisconsin has NOT been a dominant team the last 2 years,(and since as you will soon read, Wisconsin does not pad his stats against these teams), DAYNE IS NEEDED TO CARRY A LOT TO WIN THE GAME. Whereas Nebraska and Florida steamroll the non-bowl teams, allowing Green and Taylor to take a breather, Dayne must stay in the game as it is often still in doubt. In addition, he gets the ball about 3 times fewer per game against the top teams than the average back. Add these 3 carries (x 4.9 YPC) and you can add on about 15 yards per game onto Daynes numbers, bringing him to 113 yards per game against bowl teams, still under the average of 123, but much closer to the average and about in line with many of the individuals (equal or greater than Denson, Taylor, Irvin, Holcombe, Banks, and Lewis). So, those 3 carries per game are indeed important. Why does he get 3 fewer per game than the others? Well, again I would hypothesize that due to Wisconsins poor record against bowl teams, the games have been out of reach and Dayne has left early. Blowouts against bowl teams have been much too common for the Badgers the last two years, thereby hurting Daynes numbers.
As many know, Ron Dayne played injured last year and behind an inexperienced OL. Could his overall numbers been severely brought down his second year over his first because of this? Lets take a look.
96 against bowl teams:135 carries, 722 yards, 5.4 YPC, 120 YPG
97 against bowl teams:83 carries, 349 yards, 4.2 YPC, 87 YPG
CONCLUSION: Obvioulsy he slipped tremendously from his freshman to his sophomore year in this regard. Whether it was the injury, the poor blocking, or some other factor, I will leave up to you to decide. But, if you look at his 96 numbers against bowl teams, they are right on target where the typical star backs are against bowl teams.
3.)"Ron Dayne convieniently gets hurt against the good teams"
Well, aside from the fact that he was hurt for the majority of the 97 season, he only missed full games against Boise State and Michigan. I would say that is a push. He missed a great chance to rack up yards against Boise State while also missing a chance to get stymied by the number one defense in the country (although for the record, Carl McCullough ran for 102 yards on 20 carries against the Wolverines, so we cant assume anything.) He also missed most of the Iowa game.
4.) "Dayne pads his stats against patsies late in games"
Actually, there have been four games in his career against good teams where he was pulled EARLY in the game with well under 20 carries, because the team was getting slaughtered. Instead of staying in the game and racking up yards, Alvarez pulled him and saved him for another day.
Michigan State: 15-81
Iowa: 17-62
Syracuse: 13-46
Georgia: 14-36
For arguments sake, lets pretend that Alvarez would have left him in at garbage time and he would have received 25 carries in each of those games. I will extrapolate the results based on the the same per carry average. Here are the results of how he might have done if not pulled early and gotten his 25 carries.
Michigan State: 25-135
Iowa: 25-91
Syracuse: 25-88
Georgia: 25-69
Hypothetically, if Dayne would have remained in the game against these top teams, he would have had a very good game against MSU, OK games against Iowa and Syracuse, and Georgia would have continued to shut him down.
Now, lets see how many times in his big games against bad teams that he was removed early. (Not taking into account that in his first 3 games as a freshman against subpar opponents, he received limited carries.)
Purdue: removed midway through the 4th quarter
Illinois: removed with 9:00 to play
Hawaii: removed mid way through the third quarter
Utah: removed with 9:00 remaining in the 4th
San Jose State: removed in the mid third quarter
San Diego State: removed with 7:00 remaining in the 4th
Illinois: removed with 9:00 remaining in the 4th
This phenomenon is not unique to many great backs, especially those on very good teams. I don't mean to suggest that Dayne's number against these bad teams should have been better. Any back on a good team can make this claim. However, these numbers show conclusively that his number have NOT been enhanced by late game garbage yards.
CONCLUSION: If anything, his numbers COULD BE MUCH BETTER if he remained in games both against good opponents and bad opponents. He has only played 23 college games. In those games, he played what we might call the entire game only 9 times while 14 times he got only part time or 3/4 time!!! (3 games before he established himself, the 4 games where the Badgers were out of the game early, and 7 games where the Badgers were well ahead)
SUBJECTIVE ISSUES
Although this has been a fact-based evaluation of Ron Dayne, I will touch briefly on two important subjective issues that may come into play when discussing Dayne.
First, Dayne has thrived in an offense with few alternative threats, namely in the passing game. Mike Samuel has been a very poor passing QB, allowing teams to stack the line against the run. Many of the players in this comparative evaluation have had the benefit of at least a marginal passing attack able to take at least some of the heat off of them. Dayne has not been this lucky. He has constantly faced 8 and 9 man fronts with few teams having any respect for Wisconsins passing game. This has to hinder his numbers in my opinion.
Secondly, as touched upon earlier, many of the top backs have benefitted from solid offensive lines. Dayne was one of these players in his first year, playing behind an experienced if not overly talented offensive line. However, running behind an OL with 3 freshmen and a sophomore starting could have done nothing but hurt his numbers in 1997.
SUMMARY
Here is what we have learned about Ron Dayne through this study:
1.) The raw numbers show Ron Dayne to be among college footballs all-time greats.
2.) Ron Dayne gets the ball no more often than typical star running backs do.
3.) Ron Dayne gets the ball fewer times than the elite all-time great college running backs do, yet puts up similar numbers.
4.) Ron Daynes greatest games (290+ yards) are accumulated against poor teams. This is consistent with most great games by all backs in Big Ten history.
5.) The average star back gains a bit less than 1 yard per carry fewer against bowl teams than against non-bowl teams. They gain on the average 15 yards fewer per game.
6.) Nobody is even remotely close to Daynes performance against non-bowl teams, where he has averaged 247 yards per game against non-bowl teams in his career.
7.) Daynes performance drops drastically against bowl-caliber teams.
8.) Typical backs carry the ball an equal amount of times against either bowl or non-bowl competition, 23 times per game on the average.
9.) Ron Dayne carries the ball 36 times per game against non-bowl teams, much higher than the average.
10.) Ron Dayne carries the ball 20 times per game against bowl teams, 3 fewer per game than the typical star back.
11.) If Dayne were "given" these 3 extra carries per game against the bowl teams, retaining the same per carry average, his numbers would be a match for backs such as Denson, Taylor, Irvin, Holcombe, Banks, and Lewis, though still about 10 yards shy of the average (due to the fantastic numbers of players like Curtis Enis).
12.) Daynes 96 averages against bowl teams were almost exactly in line with typical star backs performances against bowl teams.
13.) Daynes 97 averages against bowl teams were much much below those of typical star backs performance against bowl teams.
14.) The reason for this decline are unproven. (Though IMHO, injury and poor OL play head the list in my mind.)
15.) Ron Dayne has not missed an inordinate amount of time versus bowl teams.
16.) Dayne has only played a full game 9 out of 23 times in his college career. He has been removed early in the game often. Therefore his numbers are not padded by garbage time stats.
17.) There are a couple of subjective issues which may or may not affect Daynes general performance, but are unprovable.
Without question, Ron Dayne has certainly put up some mind-boggling numbers, especially considering the fact that he is only entering his junior year. Yes, there are some questions regarding his performance.
However, I hope this study has shown that in fact his numbers are not a complete mirage. This year is in fact very important for Ron Dayne. If he rebounds from a mediocre (in Dayne terms) sophomore year and posts 130 yards per game against bowl teams much as he did his freshman year, I think you can drop the criticizms and acknowledge that Ron Dayne is one of the best college backs we have seen in the last 10 years or so.
If however, he duplicates his sophomore numbers against bowl teams, I think you can seriously question the overall quality of his yards, simply labeling him as a good back (one of the greatest ever against mediocre teams), but one who couldnt get it done against the "Big Boys" (whether his fault or the teams fault.) I dont think the evidence is conclusive in either direction at this point.
Revisited After presenting my findings to the public eye, a number of individuals questioned or pointed out ways they felt my methods may have been somewhat biased. Most notably was the assumption that a bowl team by definition would have a stong defense. Logically of course, this is not always true. There are bowl caliber teams which possess poor defenses. So, I decided to look at the numbers:
Generally speaking, bowl teams DO have the best defenses (which makes sense logically).
Of the top 32 defenses in the country last year against the run, 26 of them went to bowl games (81%).
Another 4 teams that went to bowl games were still in the upper half (36 K-St, 37-WV, 42-GA Tech, 55-Wis).
Only 10 of the teams would be considered below average against the run (61-NM, 64-PTT, 67-A&M;, 69-Miss, 78-PUR, 81-PSU, 82-Marshall, 83-ND, 91-ORE, 93-Missou) went to bowl games.
Now, look at how this might affect the evaluations:
Prentice-loses his 203 game against Marshall (now averages 84 YPG against bowl teams with good
defenses)
Enis-loses his 186 yard game against Purdue
Irvin-loses his 106 yard game against ND and his 238 yard game against PSU (OUCH..he now
averages 71 YPG vs. the bowl teams with good run defenses)
Denson-loses his 104 yard game against Purdue and his 128 yard game against PITT (his only 2
100 yard games against bowl teams...now averages 74 YPG vs. bowl teams with
good run defenses)
Zeroue-loses his 174 yard game against Marshall, his 234 yard game against ND, and his 151 yard
game against PITT (triple OUCH)
Williams loses his 235 games against Missou and his 183 yard games agsint A&M;
(Guess what, Ricky Williams, who many have penciled in as the best in the NCAA, now averages
a mind boggling 58 YPG against bowl teams with good defenses)
Lewis-loses his 155 yard game against MISS (down to 93 YPG)
Green-loses his 189 yard game against Missou and his 179 yard game against A&M;
Dayne-loses his 141 yard game against Purdue and his 126 yard game against PSU
POINT: Virtually ALL backs would have their top games "deleted" if we went by this criteria. It would also leave us with data sets so small (1 or 2 games) that they would really cease to be relevant anymore.
CONCLUSION: All backs lose a considerable amount of their effectiveness against bowl teams with good run defense. (DUH) Dayne is NOT unique in this regard at all. Many of them get the "hit" in their stats even harder than Dayne does.
Now, I was going to give the complete rundown of these numbers by looking at how each runner did against elite run defense teams, good run defense teams, fair run defense team, etc. However, I decided to go one better. I wished to find out exactly how each runner did compared to the expected total against each opponent. So, if Wisconsin surrenders 152 YPG on the ground per game, any game above that total would yield a positive number, while any below would yield a negative result.
Note, before I give you the numbers, that many games will be given a negative value. This is because the team averages are what they surrender to an entire team, not just to an individual runner. Also, surprisingly, often times the worse the defense, the more it penalizes runners. So, take Tulsa for instance. They surrendered 310 YPG last season per game on the ground. So, if a back "only" runs for 200 yards, he has a game value of -110. However, if he runs for 314 against them (like Tavian Banks did), he still gets some credit. To gain any points against a poor defense, you really need to gain some serious yardage. Conversely, great games against great defenses are worth their weight in gold. In fact, any games as a positive value are outstanding games.
OK, here are the numbers. I started with the players who benefitted the MOST from what I will call "overinflated yards".:
D. Harris: -54.7 YPG
COMMENT: Harris ran for an average of 55 yards fewer per game than the opposing defense typicall surrendered, the worst total of all the top backs. He had 2 postive games during the season. This implies that he played against quite a few very poor run defenses in accumulating his yardage.
S. Irvin: -53 YPG
COMMENT: Irvin ran for an average of 53 yards fewer per game than the defense typically surrendered. He only had one positive game all season.
T. Banks: -37.6 YPG
COMMENT: Banks ran for an average of 38 yards fewer per game than the defense typically surrendered. He only had two positive games all season. Note that one game was not included because they are Div. II (N. Iowa).
A. Denson: -35.2 YPG
COMMENT: Denson ran for an average of 35 yards fewer per game than the defense typically surrendered. He had three positive game during the season.
R. Holcombe: -35.1 YPG
COMMENT: Holcombe ran for an average of 35 yards fewer per game than the defense typically surrendered. He had three positive game during the season.
C. Enis: -34.9 YPG
COMMENT: Enis ran for an average of 35 yards fewer per game than the defense typically surrendered. He had three positive game during the season. (though all against very good teams.)
A. Zeroue: -30.6 YPG
COMMENT: Zeroue ran for an average of 31 yards fewer per game than the defense typically surrendered. He had three positive game during the season.
A. Green: -30.4 YPG
COMMENT: Green ran for an average of 30 yards fewer per game than the defense typically surrendered. He had four positive game during the season. Nebraska really played a bundle of teams with lousy run defenses.
T. Prentice: -26.8 YPG
COMMENT: Prentice ran for an average of 27 yards fewer per game than the defense typically surrendered. He had four positive game during the season.
Now we get to the top 4.
R. Dayne : (two year average): -18 YPG
1996: -15 YPG
1997: -21.3 YPG
COMMENT: Dayne ran for an average of 21 yards fewer per game than the defense typically surrendered. He had eight positive game during the two seasons. Now, here is what is really interesting about Dayne. People think that his numbers get killed by the top teams. BUT, using this method, what really kills him are his first three games. Other than Jamal Lewis of Tennessee (coming in a sec), EVERY OTHER BACK BEGAN THEIR SEASON AS THE FEATURE BACK!!! Dayne did not start until his 5th college game. I will keep his 4th college game in the study as he did get 24 carries against PSU. But, because he only receivd very limited carries, take a look at what happens to his numbers when we take out those games against Eastern Michigan, UNLV, and Stanford (when he could have really run wild if he had been starting.)
1996: +16.7 YPG!!!!!!!! (Nobody else in the study comes even remotely close to being in the positive range). Think about that for a second. After becoming a starter, Dayne ran for 16 yards per game MORE than the opposing defense typically surrendered by the entire opposing team!
Without these first 3 games in his career, his overall numbers come in at -2 YPG. This would still make him the best back in college football over this time period.
R. Williams: -15.5 YPG
COMMENT: Williams ran for an average of 16 yards fewer per game than the defense typically surrendered. He had five positive game during the season.
F. Taylor: -11.3 YPG
COMMENT: Taylor ran for an average of 11 yards fewer per game than the defense typically surrendered. He had four positive game during the season.
And the "champion", Jamal Lewis: -10.9 YPG
COMMENT: Lewis ran for an average of 11 yards fewer per game than the defense typically surrendered. He had three four positive games during the season. What is even more amazing about Lewis is, that like Dayne in 96. there were 3 games in which Lewis received limited playing time. Take these games out and his numbers look like this:
+13.5! (However, it must be noted that in two of those games, Florida and UCLA, he was facing top defenses and it is very likely that they could have shut him down and decreased these numbers. Still highly impressive though.)
CUMULATIVE TOTALS:
Average Top Back: -41.2 YPG
Dayne: -21 YPG
CONCLUSION: This study reinforces the belief that Dayne is indeed a top back. A typical star back will rush for 41 yards per game fewer than the opposing defense typically allows to their opposing TEAM. Dayne only runs for 21 yards per game fewer. Dayne ranks 4th among top backs in this respect. If you throw out the 3 games beginning his freshman year, he becomes the only back to be ranked in the positives. You can also do this with Jamal Lewis of Tennessee.
1999 Update
Well, we have another season of Dayne data to dissect and continue our discussion of whether or not he truly should be considered a great collegiate back or just a very good one that benefits from favorable context. I shall recap the important points from the previous studies and then look at Daynes 1998 season to see how he compares.
1.) The Raw Numbers
Ron Dayne ran 295 times for 1525 yards and 15 TDs in 1998 averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
Subjectively, they continue to look pretty good, though what is a bit alarming is the yards per carry which has now dropped the last two seasons. Is Daynes production decreasing? Is he returning to his true level? Is there something else at play here? Lets take a look.
2.) Number of carries
Daynes carries went up by about 30 carries from the previous season, though still falling 30 carries short of his freshman year. If you recall, 295 carries is certainly a solid load, though not abnormal for other top backs.
Other top backs from 1998:
Ricky Williams: 391 carries (about 70 more than Dayne has EVER gotten in a season)
Travis Prentice: 364 carries
Mike Cloud: 308 carries
Devin West: 314 carries
"Other" Ricky Williams: 329 carries
Edgerrin James: 262 carries
James Johnson: 258 carries
Denvis Manns: 269 carries
Amos Zeroue: 293 carries
You get the idea.
CONCLUSION: Ron Dayne still does not carry the ball any more than most top rushers (and in fact less than some).
His number of carries per game was up about 3 carries per game (more in a bit).
Daynes season did not go down as one of the all-time greats, but realize that NOBODY has ever had a 2000 yard season with under 300 carries. In fact, as Ricky Williams season showed, in order to have what is considered an elite season, a runner must generally get the ball at least 340 times or so (and often closer to 400 times).
3.) Dayne runs well against bad teams but is shut down against good ones.
This is the most common complaint against Dayne and one which on the surface again has some merit as Michigan held him to his worst game in 1998. First, if you recall, we looked at how he did against bowl vs. non-bowl teams.
Dayne VS. Non-Bowl Teams: 1004 yards on 196 carries, 5.1 YPC, 143 YPG.
Dayne VS. Bowl Teams: 521 yards on 99 carries, 5.3 YPC, 130 YPG.
He averaged 28 carries per game against the non-bowl teams and 25 carries per game against the bowl teams. Give him those three extra carries, and the numbers are almost a dead heat.
CONCLUSION: In 1998, Dayne ran just as well vs. bowl teams as non-bowl teams. This very simple conclusion is quite different from past Dayne seasons. His number were much better in 1998 against the bowl teams, but down over 100 yards per game from his first two seasons against the non-bowl teams. Were the teams he played that much better in 1998 or did Daynes level of play drop off?
4.) Bowl teams dont always have good defenses...how did he do considering the defense he is up against?
If you recall, at this point in the conversation, this very important point was raised. "Yeah, he ran for a bunch of yards against UCLA...but who didnt? Just because they were a bowl team doesnt mean they were any good!"
At this point, I decided to go game by game with each of the top runners. How did they do against an opponent relative to what that defense allows. So, if Wisconsins defense allows 90 yards per game rushing, what should a top back be expected to get? If UNLV allows 275 yards per game rushing, what is an acceptable total?
So, I went game by game and determined that top backs on the average generally run for about 41 yards fewer than a defense typically allows (to the entire opposing team). So, using the UNLV example again...if the Rebs allow 275 yards rushing per game, a top back would be expected to gain 234 yards (275-41). Anything under 234 yards and it would be considered a below average game. In order to really impress against a bad defensive team, you need to rack up some serious serious yardage (and in many ways this hinders a RBs evaluation in this method if the team is always playing patsies with poor defenses). On the other hand, great games against great defenses are worth their weight in gold (as I stated it last year). Any score that is either positive or close to 0 is considered an excellent mark for a game.
(If you recall, this method put Dayne at -21 YPG for his career which was one of the top figures for backs. If you threw out his first three college games in which he only got mop up duty, he became the ONLY back to actually rank in the positives for this scale.)
On to 1998. First I have listed the teams rushing yards allowed per game, followed by Daynes numbers, and then his overall score for that game.
Ohio: 149 YPG, Dayne ran for 111 yards. SCORE: -38
UNLV: 233 YPG, Dayne ran for 108 yards. SCORE: -125
COMMENT: Dayne as you can see is off to a horrible start, in large part because Alvarez just didnt use him much in these two blowouts, rushing only 33 times combined. In particular, the UNLV game in which he only got 13 carries puts him in a huge huge hole.
Northwestern: 162 YPG, Dayne ran for 168 yards. SCORE +6 (remember, that is a good score.)
Indiana: 148 YPG, Dayne ran for 130 yards. SCORE: -18 (a solid game).
Purdue: 148 YPG, Dayne ran for 127 yards. SCORE: -21 (again, this is about his career average).
Illinois: 153 YPG, Dayne ran for 190 yards. SCORE: +37
Iowa: 187 YPG, Dayne ran for 164 yards. SCORE: -23
Minnesota: 103 YPG, Dayne ran for 133 yards: +30 (a super game against a very very tough and underrated run defense)
Michigan: 122 YPG, Dayne ran for 53 yards. SCORE: -69 (bad game all around).
Penn State: 97 YPG, Dayne ran for 95 yards. SCORE: -2 (95 yards seems like a pretty marginal game, until you realize that PSU had a terrific run defense last year).
UCLA: 165 YPG (YES...ONLY 165 YPG. They were not a great run defense team, but not terrible
either), Dayne ran for 246 yards. SCORE +81.
FOR THE YEAR: Daynes score came out to be a -12.9. This is an excellent score and in fact better than his career norm. Dayne ran for only 12.9 yards fewer per game than the opposing defense typically allowed to the entire opponent. Considering that Dayne was put in a huge hole in that UNLV game and considering that he carried the ball much much less than backs such as Ricky Williams or Travis Prentice, these numbers are simply terrific.
CONCLUSION: Ron Daynes numbers were down in some regards in 1998, but much of that is due to the fact that he was playing against MUCH tougher defenses. Minnesota, Michigan, and Penn State had outstanding run defenses, while even teams like Illinois, Purdue, and Indiana were solid against the run, making those yards much harder to come by. Even UCLA had a borderline respectable rushing defense statistically speaking.
Now, before we get carried away and start believing that Dayne was deserving of the Heisman or something, realize that Mr. Williams at Texas ran for an average of 44 yards MORE than his opponent typically allowed, the highest number I have seen in the last couple of years.
But, here is the difference in Dayne and Williams: Dayne 13 carries against UNLV. Williams...36 carries against New Mexico State (with their horrible rushing defense). Dayne received a game score of -125 against UNLV, while Williams received a game score of +41 in his game. Triple Daynes carries to 39, and his game score goes to +91.
Want another example? Dayne....20 carries against Ohio for a game score of -38. Williams...37 carries against woeful Iowa State for a game score of +129.
I could keep going on with Williams if you wanted...30 carries for 318 yards vs. Rice, 39 carries for 259 yards against Baylor, etc.
I dont want to diss on Williams too hard because he did have some tremendous games such as against Texas A&M; where his game score was 137 on 44 carries. Even the Nebraska game which was a pretty solid game for him, required 37 carries.
What is my point? The point is that while this crude game score is a nice indicator, there are certainly many factors which can serve to throw the numbers off.
With respect to Dayne, it means that IF Alvarez had wanted to really give Dayne a fair shot at Ricky Williams statistically speaking, he would have had to give him about 100 more carries on the season, many against the dregs on the schedule. If you do so, his numbers look awfully similar to that fellow down in Texas.
CONCLUSION: Once again, Ron Dayne had a terrific season in 1998. His numbers were down a bit, in large part due to the better defenses he played against. His numbers did not compare to the Heisman Trophy winner, though much of that was due to the extreme number of carries Ricky Williams.
2000 Update
So now, let's take a look at Dayne's '99 season. In review, I basically decided to go with the "game score" method. Basically speaking, it compares the per game average of rushing yards allowed by a team defense to the yards actually gained by a particular rusher. So, if Rusher A runs for 100 yards against a defense that typically allows 100 yards rushing per game, he would have a game score of 0. Typically, the average elite level runner has a game score of about -40 per game. This isn't by any means a perfect method, but it does give a rough approximation.
Over his career, Ron Dayne has averaged a game score of -20 or so per game, a very good score, especially considering that his carries have been typically lower than many top backs as well as the fact that Alvarez has given him the early hook all too often (from the standpoint of stat-padding).
This year, I have also added one other feature. I have removed the Wisconsin numbers from each defensive team's totals. Otherwise, essentially I am either penalizing/assisting Dayne because of what he and the Badgers did against that team. Should Dayne be penalized for example because the team ran for 7 million yards against Indiana, altering their defensive average?
Here is Dayne's season game by game (not including D2 Murray State):
Ball State:
Defensive average: 232 yards per game
Dayne: 158 yards
Game score: -74
Comment: As often has been the case, Dayne was penalized somewhat by the fact that he was yanked
after 3 quarters. Still, he did have 31 carries so I don't think he has reason to complain.
All in all, a mediocre start to the season.
Cincinnati:
Defensive average: 162 yards per game
Dayne: 231 yards
Game score: +69
Comment: A fantastic game for Dayne. While the Bearcats weren't exactly run-stuffers, they
weren't the pushovers that some assumed them to be either.
Michigan:
Defensive average: 114 yards per game
Dayne: 88 yards
Game score: -26
Comment: While this game got a lot of pub thanks to the zero yards in the second half, the
reality of the game is that a game score of -26 is fine.
Ohio State:
Defensive average: 147 yards per game
Dayne: 161 yards
Game score: +14
Comment: Another good solid above average game against a decent run defense.
Minnesota:
Defensive average: 137 yards per game
Dayne: 80 yards
Game score: -57
Comment: This in fact was Dayne's worst game of the year, NOT the Michigan game. Minnesota had a
good defense, but not quite in Michigan's class (against the run). Dayne also benefitted from
OT (where he gained about 20 yards), though he did only have 25 carries for the game.
Indiana:
Defensive average: 186 yards per game
Dayne: 167 yards
Game score: -19
Comment: A good game score overall, but a tremendous one considering he only played the first
half of the game. If you recall, this is exactly the type of game that Ricky Williams was
allowed to pile on the yards in '98.
Michigan State:
Defensive average: 55 yards per game
Dayne: 214 yards
Game score: +159
Comment: A simply amazing amazing game. I would think you would be hard pressed to find a game
against such a tremendous defense and yet such impressive numbers. Again, throw in the fact
that Dayne only played into the 3rd quarter, and the numbers become even more mind boggling.
Northwestern:
Defensive average: 186 yards per game
Dayne: 162 yards
Game score: -24
Comment: A game right about his career norm.
Purdue:
Defensive average: 130 yards per game
Dayne: 222 yards
Game score: +92
Comment: Another tremendous game against a highly underrated run defense. While they were not
an elite rush defense team, the Boilers were still pretty darn good. A score of +92 is
marvelous.
Iowa:
Defensive average: 230 yards per game
Dayne: 216 yards
Game score: -14
Comment: Another workmanlike performance, again in just over one half of play.
Stanford:
Defensive average: 148 yards per game
Dayne: 200 yards
Game score: +52
Comment: Like Purdue, Stanford was perceived to have a mediocre run defense. And while they were
not any better than average, they weren't actually as terrible as many made them out to be.
Dayne once again comes through with big numbers.
For the season, Dayne's overall game score is an outstanding +172, for an average of +15.6 per game, by far the best total of his career. His numbers do not approach Ricky Williams' total of +44 per game of 1998, but I think I have made it pretty clear as to why. Tack on another game and a half of garbage time against the crummy teams that Wisconsin blew out, something Texas allowed Williams to do in spades, and you are going to have another 250 or so total yards rushing, putting his numbers at or above what Williams accomplished.
There was this perception that Dayne garnered the Heisman last year as some career accomplishment , but last year was by far his best year and truly one of the better seasons by any back in recent college football history.
And although it has been stated quite often, I think Coach Alvarez deserves another public kudos for having the class of not rubbing other teams' noses in the dirt by allowing Dayne to run rough-shod over them all game long when not necessary.
Ron Dayne was flat out one of the best college backs of our generation, and deserves to have the career rushing mark. It was simply not a fluke.