Arizona Wildcats

Analysis of Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game

1. Wade and Thurman vs. Tucker and Starks While they weren't TOTALLY shut down, Tucker and Starks came pretty darn close. Aided by some dropped passes, Tucker and Starks came up big against their toughest tests to date thus far, with Tucker leading the way with 2 picks.

2. Under Pressure

   They blitzed slightly more than I expected, but were able to get heat on Johnson fairly regularly. While they didn't notch too many sacks, they did a nice job of flushing Johnson out of the pocket and forcing him out of his comfort zone, which lead to some wobbly passes.

3. Run to Daylight

   Farmer ran for 130+ yards, but 70 came on one run against an overzealous blitz. Overall, Arizona did little on the ground in terms of sustained push.

   Wisconsin on the other hand was able to gash the Wildcats consistently, allowing them to put together a number of time consuming impressive drives.

4. Make em pay

   Shorter drops, quicker routes, a more mobile pocket, and fewer long down and distance situations allowed Wisconsin to handle Arizona's blitz package with little trouble. They did not hit many deep, but were able to move the chains with a lot of quick hitters.

1. Wade and Thurman vs. Tucker and Starks Wisconsin's corners have been inconsistent this year, but have been bailed out by mediocre QB play from the opposition. Against Wade and Thurman, they face the challenge of staying with two of the better receivers they have seen this year AND, a QB in Jason Johnson who can get them the ball. Wade and Thurman will not be totally shut down, but they cannot be allowed to make the consistent home runs.

2. Under Pressure

   Johnson is a pocket passer who has the aformentioned weapons on the outside. Wisconsin will bring some blitz packages to mix things up from time to time, but I feel they will not want to expose their DB's too much, so their blitzing will be limited. This means that the Badger defensive line must put some pressure on Johnson by themselves in order to protect the DB's.

3. Run to Daylight

   Both Arizona and Wisconsin have backs coming off big seasons last year who have failed to match last season's production as teams have concentrated on keeping them in check. Whichever team gets their star back going and provides some semblance of balance to the offense will have a huge advantage.

4. Make em pay

   After last week's pass blocking debacle, expect Arizona to come after Bollinger with everything they have. Arizona's passing defense has been effective so far, though they will be without their top cornerback, Michael Jolivette. Wisconsin must make them pay when they overcommit to the blitz, both by consistently hitting the underneath routes, but also by hitting the home runs.

Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 4 point favorite. Howell has the Badgers as a 12.5 point favorite with an 71% chance of winning. Projected score of 31-18.

NCAA Stat Rankings

Here is how the two teams rank in terms of NCAA stats:

Rushing Offense: WIS 63, AZ 109
Passing Offense: WIS 59, AZ 2
Passing Efficiency: WIS 37, AZ 6
Total Offense: WIS 68, AZ 7
Scoring Offense: WIS 66, AZ 50
Rushing Defense: WIS 61, AZ 13
Passing Defense: WIS 80, AZ 15
Passing Efficiency Defense: WIS 35, AZ 15
Total Defense: WIS 73, AZ 3
Scoring Defense: WIS 24, AZ 6
Turnover Margin: WIS 4, AZ 53

Individually...

Anthony Davis is 42nd in rushing yards per game.
Brooks Bollinger is 35th in passing efficiency and 58th in total offense.
Jonathan Orr is 45th in receiving yards per game.
Jim Leonards is 4th in interceptions per game and 56th in punt returns.
RJ Morse is 66th in punting average.
Jerone Pettus is 89th in kickoff returns.
Scott Campbell is 86th in field goals per game.

Jason Johnson is 4th in passing efficiency and 2nd in total offense.
Bobby Wade is 8th in receptions per game, 67th in punt returns, 37th in scoring, and 3rd in receiving yards per game.
Andrae Thurman is 31st in receptions per game and 20th in receiving yards per game.
Ramey Peru is 71st in punting.
Sean Keel is 2nd in field goals per game and 17th in scoring.